Enrollments at American colleges slid slightly this fall as institutions faced a shrinking pool of high-school graduates at the same time that a slowly expanding economy was luring older students back to work, the National Student Clearinghouse Research Center reported on Thursday.
Over all, enrollment dropped 1.5 percent in the fall of 2013, compared to the previous fall, after slipping 1.8 percent last year.
Four-year, for-profit colleges registered the largest decreases, with enrollments dropping 9.7 percent this fall after declines of 7.2 percent and 3.8 percent the previous two years.
Noah Black, a spokesman for the Association of Private Sector Colleges and Universities, the for-profit sector’s main trade group, agreed with the center’s lead researcher that heightened scrutiny of the sector had hurt enrollment. But, he added, “for years, we were criticized for growing too fast, and now we’re criticized for reducing enrollment. Somewhere in between is the right point in the right-sizing of our sector.”
Patterns Across Groups
The report breaks down enrollment patterns by sector, region, and student characteristics like gender, age group, and part-time versus full-time status. It covers 96 percent of the enrollment at degree-granting institutions that receive federal student aid.
Enrollments at two-year public colleges slipped 3.1 percent. They inched up by 1.3 percent at four-year private nonprofit colleges, and by 0.3 percent at four-year public institutions.
By age group, fall enrollments dropped 3.4 percent for students older than 24, compared to a 0.4-percent decrease for students 24 and under.
“This suggests that much of the enrollment decline may be driven by older students’ returning to the job market,” said Jason DeWitt, the center’s research manager. “Many of those students were displaced during the recession and attended community colleges and for-profit colleges in particular.”
That trend was reflected in the figures for community colleges. Two-year public colleges saw a 6-percent decrease in students older than 24, compared to a 1.2-percent drop for those 24 and under.
Some community colleges in states like California had to limit enrollments because of budget cuts, Donald R. Hossler, a professor of educational leadership and policy studies at Indiana University at Bloomington, pointed out.
Four-year colleges, which generally fared better, tend to have “a more robust recruiting machine in place” to weather the demographic challenges, said Mr. Hossler, who was the founding executive director of the clearinghouse research center and is now a consultant for it.
Among the states with the largest enrollment declines this year were Iowa, down 9.5 percent; Louisiana, down 7.4 percent; and Arizona, down 5.9 percent.
Arizona’s decline came just two years after it chalked up the largest percentage increase of any state, at 18.3 percent. That year—2011—was a boom time for many colleges as the number of high-school graduates reached an all-time high. This year’s slide in Arizona is mostly due to nose-diving enrollment in the state’s largest community colleges, including Pima Community College.
The only states with significant increases were New Hampshire, with a 12.9-percent jump, and West Virginia, up 7.8 percent. In both cases, the enrollment spike was largely due to growing use of online education. Southern New Hampshire University has expanded its online program to more than 80 accredited undergraduate majors, according to its website.
“Online programs, which attract students from many states, are blurring the lines of what a state’s enrollment means,” Mr. DeWitt said. They can grow and shrink so rapidly that enrollment patterns become increasingly volatile, he added.
Demographic Influences
Regional differences were largely due to demographics, he said.
Enrollments dropped by 2.6 percent in the Midwest, 0.9 percent in the South, 0.7 percent in the West, and 0.3 percent in the Northeast, where the large concentration of private colleges drew a welcome influx of out-of-state students.
Eleven out of 12 states in the Midwest saw decreases, largely because of the disproportionate and early drop in the number of high-school graduates. Their numbers peaked in 2007-8, while the other three regions were projected to peak in 2010-11.
Mr. Hossler said the growing proportion, among high-school graduates, of Hispanic students whose parents didn’t attend college might account for some of the decline in college enrollments. The clearinghouse report doesn’t examine breakdowns by race, however, and Mr. DeWitt said he didn’t have enough data to prove that was the case.
In the four-year, for-profit sector, the biggest declines were among students 24 and younger, whose numbers dropped 14.7 percent, compared to an 8.5-percent decrease for students older than 24. The declines were slightly higher among older students, however, in both two- and four-year public institutions.
By gender, enrollment slipped slightly more over all for women, down 1.8 percent, compared to 1.1 percent for men, with some of the biggest drops coming at community colleges. The reverse was true at four-year for-profit colleges, where enrollments of men were down 11.9 percent, compared to 8.6 percent for women.
Where Students Are Disappearing
Over the past four years, total enrollment increased slightly, then dipped. By sector, the declines have occurred primarily at community colleges and for-profit institutions, and geographically, the Midwest has seen the sharpest drops.
ENROLLMENT BY SECTOR, ANNUAL PERCENTAGE CHANGE |
| Total | 2-year public | 4-year public | 4-year private nonprofit | 4-year for-profit | |
Fall 2010 | 2.3% | 0.3% | 1.6% | 2.7% | 14.8% |
Fall 2011 | 0.2% | -1.6% | 1.4% | 3.3% | -3.8% |
Fall 2012 | -1.8% | -3.1% | -0.6% | 0.5% | -7.2% |
Fall 2013 | -1.5% | -3.1% | 0.3% | 1.3% | -9.7% |
ENROLLMENT BY REGION, ANNUAL PERCENTAGE CHANGE |
| Total | Midwest | Northeast | South | West | |
Fall 2011 | 0.2% | 0.3% | -0.3% | 0.7% | 1.6% |
Fall 2012 | -1.8% | -2.4% | -0.7% | -1.6% | -1.7% |
Fall 2013 | -1.5% | -2.6% | -0.3% | -0.9% | -0.7% |
Note: Fall 2010 enrollment data for regions are not available. |
Source: Term Enrollment Estimates, Fall 2013, National Student Clearinghouse Research Center |