2 Keys to Success for Underprivileged Students: When to Start College, and Where to Go

Mark Makela for The New York Times

In poor urban neighborhoods, getting not just to but through college can be a path to a brighter future. But where students enroll, and how soon after high-school graduation they start college, can markedly affect their chances of earning a degree.

A study of former Philadelphia public-school students by researchers at Drexel University found that six years after their expected high-school graduation, only one in five had earned a college certificate or degree.

But for those who started college within a semester of getting a high-school diploma, the success rate was far higher: 46 percent. Nationally about two-thirds of students who are age 20 or younger when they enter college earn a degree within six years, according to the National Student Clearinghouse.

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By contrast, just 15 percent of the Philadelphia students who postponed enrolling in higher education past the semester after high-school graduation had earned a degree or credential six years later. Destination mattered, too: The overall community-college completion rate was only 15 percent. At four-year institutions, that success rate was closer to 50 percent.

In an economy where a degree has pretty much become a prerequisite for landing a middle-income job, failing to finish college can be a handicap. In Philadelphia, people who started college but dropped out are less likely to be employed than are those with an associate or bachelor’s degree. College dropouts earn little more than those with just a high-school diploma. That’s troubling in a city that has struggled with persistent poverty and high youth unemployment. In fact, college “noncompleters” could fall further behind, racking up student-loan debt without gaining a credential that would increase their paycheck.

“Going to college is just the first step,” says Neeta P. Fogg, one of the paper’s authors and a research professor at Drexel’s Center for Labor Markets and Policy. “The pathway you choose as a student is very strongly related to your success.”

Ms. Fogg and her colleague, Paul E. Harrington, the center’s director, examined college enrollment, retention, and completion outcomes for a cohort of School District of Philadelphia students who started high school in the 2003-4 academic year. Of the 9,061 students who earned high-school diplomas, 5,287, or 58 percent, enrolled in college at some point between graduation and the spring of 2014.

Community colleges, for which 40 percent of the graduates opted, were the most popular destination. Among students who went right away, 22 percent had earned a certificate or degree — or were still enrolled — by the spring of 2014. But just half of the community-college-goers had enrolled immediately. Of those who delayed, fewer than 10 percent earned a degree or credential.

The picture was very different at public four-year institutions. Ninety percent of the students who went there started immediately, and 53 percent of them earned a degree, twice the rate of those who postponed enrollment at public universities.

Students who enrolled immediately in private four-year colleges had even better outcomes. Sixty-five percent of them earned a degree within six years.

But in the private-college data, the researchers discovered something odd. Compared with public colleges, a smaller share of the students at private institutions had started right after graduation: just 60 percent. Delaying enrollment had a profound effect, depressing the likelihood of graduation to 19 percent.

“It seemed like crazy findings,” Mr. Harrington says. “We thought, How can that be?”

Because of confidentiality concerns, Mr. Harrington and Ms. Fogg did not know the names or selectivity of the colleges in which Philadelphia graduates enrolled. However, they hypothesize that there are two distinct segments of private colleges, one that is selective and focuses on recent high-school graduates, and one that is open-access and caters to somewhat older learners. The latter very likely includes for-profit colleges, the researchers say.

Demographics Matter, Too

Even when controlling for all other factors, the researchers found that destination and timing of enrollment had strong independent effects on whether students graduated. Compared with those who enrolled immediately at four-year private institutions (the group with the best outcomes), community-college students who delayed enrollment (the group with the worst outcomes) were 39 percent less likely to earn a degree.

Where and when students go to college were not the only variables that influenced their success. A variety of demographic factors, such as race and ethnicity, can play a role as well, the Drexel study suggests. Latino and black students, who make up the majority of those enrolled in Philadelphia public schools, were significantly less likely than their white or Asian peers to earn a degree. That may be, in part, because students from underrepresented-minority groups are disproportionately likely to end up at institutions that see a lower share of students through to graduation — a trend that researchers at Georgetown University have said perpetuates white privilege.

High-school attendance, grade-point average, standardized-test scores, and the level of turnover within a student’s high school also have an impact on college completion.

One characteristic that did not have a statistically significant impact was socioeconomic status. In a city where 80 percent of public-school students qualify for free or reduced-price lunches, Ms. Fogg says, there is not enough variability in family income to detect its effect.

Even so, she says, the enrollment trends she and Mr. Harrington spotted could be exacerbating economic inequality. Earlier studies have found that students from the lowest income quintile are six times as likely to delay college enrollment as those from the top quintile. And a recent report from the Pell Institute for the Study of Opportunity in Higher Education and the University of Pennsylvania’s Alliance for Higher Education and Democracy found that students who receive Pell Grants are 20 percentage points less likely than wealthier students to go to a four-year college as opposed to a two-year institution.

That means low-income students end up on campuses with the fewest financial resources. According to the Delta Cost Project, community colleges spent $10,804 per student on education in 2013, $531 less than in 2008. Public research universities, by contrast, spent $17,252 per student, $404 more than five years earlier. And while money is no guarantee of academic success, the economic and racial stratification of higher education can mean that the neediest students end up at institutions not necessarily equipped to meet their needs.

If low-income students end up on paths with lower rates of success, they risk “being left behind,” Ms. Fogg says. “A college degree is becoming the fault line between haves and have-nots.”

The two researchers are quick to say that they are not arguing for students to avoid community colleges or other less-selective institutions, or that encouraging students to enroll in college immediately after graduation would be a magic bullet. Rather, they suggest that students’ choices reflect broader issues. Those who go immediately to college and who enroll in four-year institutions may be more motivated to succeed and more focused on their course of study and eventual career.

Identifying ways to help students find direction could give them a better shot at sticking with college and graduating. As an example, the researchers point to a project in Rhode Island that matches community-college students with mentors.

This is not a problem that can be solved by higher education alone, says Laura Perna, an author of the Pell Institute study and a professor at Penn. High schools, too, must play a role, she says. “It’s not either/or. It’s both/and.”

The Drexel researchers prepared their study for Project U-Turn and the Philadelphia Youth Network, two nonprofit groups focused on improving the city’s educational attainment. One takeaway, says Lisa Nutter, president of Philadelphia Academies, which is involved with both groups, is that students may founder if they don’t see how higher education can provide a pathway to a career. They need guidance at all levels, she says, to help them stay on track.

“It’s not enough for them to just write their goals on a piece of paper,” Ms. Nutter says. “We have to help them find a way to achieve them.”

Karin Fischer writes about international education, colleges and the economy, and other issues. She’s on Twitter @karinfischer, and her email address is karin.fischer@chronicle.com.