Sixty percent of prospective international students say they would be less likely to study at an American college if Donald J. Trump was elected president.
By comparison, only about 4 percent of the potential students indicate they would steer clear of the United States if Hillary Clinton became the 45th president, while 5 percent said the same of her Democratic rival, Sen. Bernie Sanders of Vermont.
The findings come from a survey of more than 40,000 students in 118 countries by Intead, a firm that advises colleges on global marketing, and FFPEDUMedia, which runs student-recruitment fairs abroad.
Benjamin Waxman, Intead’s chief executive, called the findings “jaw-dropping.”
Read more about Donald Trump’s candidacy, his election, and how he relates to academe in this collection of Chronicle articles and essays, including news and commentary about the Trump administration.
The potential cost of a Trump presidency could be $4.75 billion, Mr. Waxman said, based on an annual estimated per-student impact of $31,600 on the American economy. (The calculations are published by the Institute of International Education and Nafsa: Association of International Educators.)
Nearly one million international students currently study on American campuses.
While Mr. Waxman conceded that it is unlikely that foreign students would stay home — or decide to study in another country, like Britain or Canada — in such large numbers, he said that if even just a fraction opted to do so, it could have a significant impact on American colleges.
Hostile Rhetoric
Mr. Trump, who is now the Republican Party’s presumptive nominee, has engaged in rhetoric that has sometimes been nativist and hostile to those from overseas. He has called for building a wall on the border with Mexico and said he would bar Muslims abroad from entering the United States, a ban that could include international students.
Perhaps not surprisingly, students from Mexico, which is the 10th-leading source of international enrollments at American colleges, were among those who reacted the most negatively to a potential Trump presidency. Almost 80 percent of Mexican students said they would be less likely to study in the United States if his candidacy was successful.
Students from other major source countries also said they would balk at studying in Mr. Trump’s America, including 39 percent of students from India (the second-largest source country), 49 percent of students from Brazil (No. 6), and 40 percent of those from Vietnam (No. 9).
The survey, however, does not include data on students in the largest sending country, China, or the largest predominantly Muslim sending country, Saudi Arabia. FFPEDUMedia doesn’t collect data on students in those countries, Mr. Waxman said.
Over all, 60 percent of prospective students said they would be less likely to attend an American college under a Trump presidency, while 25 percent said his candidacy would not affect them. Five percent said they would be more likely to study in the United States after a Trump election.
By contrast, just 4 percent of potential students said they would reconsider pursuing an American degree if Ms. Clinton was elected. Thirty-seven percent said the political fortunes of the former U.S. secretary of state would not affect their decision, and 48 percent said they would be more likely to come to the United States.
If Mr. Sanders were to take office, 5 percent indicated they would be less likely to study in America, 30 percent would be more likely, and 42 percent would be unaffected.
The survey, which was conducted in March, also included Sen. Ted Cruz of Texas, who at the time was competing with Mr. Trump for the Republican nomination.
Mr. Waxman, of Intead, said the firm had decided at the last minute to add the question about the American presidential election to a broader survey about political and economic influences on international-student decision making. He said he didn’t expect such stark results.
“It’s shocking,” Mr. Waxman said. “We thought international students wouldn’t be paying attention.”
It’s shocking. We thought international students wouldn’t be paying attention.
Mr. Waxman emphasized that his company was not taking a political stance. Rather, he said, it was important for colleges to recognize that the outcome of the election in November could affect their student bodies. Financially strapped American institutions have increasingly come to rely on the tuition dollars of international students, who, at the undergraduate and master’s-degree levels, typically pay the full costs of their education.
There’s precedent for domestic political choices to influence international students’ decision making. Foreign enrollments at British universities, for instance, fell after the government there tightened immigration policy several years ago — both because of new restrictions on student visas and because many students came to see the country as less hospitable toward outsiders.
The findings were to be released on Wednesday at the Nafsa annual conference, which is meeting in Denver this week. But even before the data were made public, international educators here were wondering aloud about the impact of a Trump victory on international-student mobility. Without naming Mr. Trump, Nafsa’s departing president, Marlene M. Johnson, called on the organization’s members to back candidates who share their commitment to international education and openness.
Karin Fischer writes about international education, colleges and the economy, and other issues. She’s on Twitter @karinfischer, and her email address is karin.fischer@chronicle.com.
