Enrollment of 18-year-old freshmen declined by 5 percent this fall compared with last year, according to new analysis from the National Student Clearinghouse Research Center (NSCRC). That drop marked a reversal from last fall, when the number of incoming 18-year-olds — a proxy for students enrolling right after high school — increased by 3 percent.
Those numbers come from an analysis commissioned by the National College Attainment Network, known as NCAN, which sought a clearer picture of enrollment outcomes for recent high-school graduates following a tumultuous admissions and financial-aid cycle. Though the full impact of the calamitous rollout of the new Free Application for Federal Student Aid, or FAFSA, is difficult to pin down, the new data provide a snapshot of a sharp one-year drop-off among a crucial subgroup of students hit especially hard by the federal-aid crisis.
As of mid-November, an estimated 53.8 percent of the high school class of 2024 had completed a FAFSA, down from 60.3 percent at the same point last year, according to NCAN’s FAFSA Tracker. FAFSA completions among this year’s graduates were down 8.7 percent compared with last year’s cohort.
Each September, NSCRC publishes the High School Benchmarks report, which includes data on recent high-school graduates’ postsecondary enrollment outcomes, but those findings lag by a year. NSCRC’s new analysis offers an earlier answer to a pressing question: What happened to the Class of 2024?
“We’re getting this data on a time frame that can inform practitioners’ and policymakers’ understanding,” Bill DeBaun, NCAN’s senior director for data and strategic initiatives, told The Chronicle. “We can draw a much more timely connection between the FAFSA-completion declines we saw and what we’re seeing in the first semester following them.”
Nationally, the number of 18-year-old freshmen declined in 46 states, with an average drop of 7.1 percent compared with fall 2023.
Last fall, white students were the only racial or ethnic subgroup of 18-year-olds whose enrollment declined (-1.5 percent). This year, enrollments of white 18-year-olds fell most sharply (-10 percent), followed by mulitracial (-8.3 percent) and Black students (-8.2 percent). The declines were less steep for Asian American (-5.7 percent) and Hispanic students (-2.1 percent).
NSCRC’s analysis disaggregates enrollment outcomes by institutional selectivity. The sharpest declines in 18-year-old freshmen occurred at “very competitive” colleges (-8.7 percent) accepting at least half of applicants, and “competitive” ones (-7.4 percent) accepting at least three-quarters of applicants. Highly selective institutions, accepting less than a third of applicants, reported relatively modest drops (-3.4 percent).
Though all postsecondary sectors saw a decline in 18-year-olds enrolling this fall, the decreases at public (-6.4 percent) and private four-year colleges (-6.2 percent) were more than three times as large as those at two-year institutions (-1.7 percent).
One striking finding: At highly selective public institutions, the enrollment of Black 18-year-old freshmen declined by 19.6 percent — the largest decrease of any racial and ethnic subgroup across all levels of selectivity. At highly selective private colleges, enrollment of Black 18-year-olds fell by 13.8 percent. Though enrollment among white 18-year-olds declined by 10 percent over all, it fell by just 5 percent at the most highly selective institutions.
NSCRC disaggregated outcomes at colleges serving high, moderate, and low proportions of students eligible for federal Pell Grants (the methodology defines those terms here). The declines were most pronounced at private four-year colleges enrolling a high share of Pell-eligible students (-10.1 percent); public institutions in each tercile saw declines over 6 percent.
“Without knowing if these students instead matriculated to other institutions,” DeBaun wrote in a blog post about the analysis, “it may be that these students did not enroll at all and may never do so in the future.”
The declines in 18-year-old students was lowest among two-year institutions, with a -0.9 percent drop at those enrolling a high percentage of Pell-eligible students, and -1.5 percent at those enrolling a moderate percentage.
NSCRC’s analysis includes enrollment data through October for about 80 percent of colleges that share data with the organization. It follows the release of “First Look at Fall 2024 Highlights,” which included data from about 50 percent of institutions through late September. That report found that enrollment of 18-year-old freshmen had declined by 6 percent over all.
Though the FAFSA crisis loomed large over the enrollment process this year, it wasn’t the only “contextual factor,” DeBaun wrote. “It may be that these numbers represent students downshifting from more- to less-selective four-year public institutions because the most selective institutions are also often the most expensive,” he wrote. “While students of color may not have financial-aid packages in time to decide to matriculate to these, white students, whose families have more wealth on average, may have been able to keep their options open longer until an award letter could arrive. A growing percentage of students who decline to share their race or ethnicity with their postsecondary institution is another likely factor.”
During a webinar about the new analysis on Monday, Kim Cook, NCAN’s chief executive, called the 2023-24 cycle “a triple-threat year.”
“FAFSA disruptions, the Supreme Court decision to ban race-conscious admissions, and an emerging narrative that college isn’t worth it — any and all of these could hit enrollment in their own ways,” Cook said. “We need to consider and control for all three by ensuring a well functioning FAFSA, messaging affordability early in the cycle, holding up institutions that seek diverse classes of students and create campuses where all students belong, and continuing to help students see the economic mobility that a post secondary degree can bring.”
