China Is Warning Its Students About Going to College in America. Here’s Why That Matters.

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In the heat of an escalating trade war, China signaled on Monday that it may start to steer its people away from a key American export: higher education.

The country’s Ministry of Education urged Chinese scholars and students to increase their assessment of the “risks” of studying in the United States, a message that comes as American universities have themselves stepped up their scrutiny of work with and in China.

The Chinese agency, according to state media, warned U.S. visas are taking longer to review, are valid for shorter periods of time, and have been more frequently rejected.

“Step up risk assessment,” the report read, “and prepare accordingly.”

The same advice may well apply to American campuses’ research divisions and budget offices. China’s warning affirmed that higher education is in the center of the conflict between the two nations. In all but one U.S. state (Alaska), education is among the top five services exported to China, according to the U.S.-China Business Council. Many U.S. labs rely on Chinese graduate students. If geopolitical tensions bring enrollment declines, university finances and America’s research prowess could take a hit.

The warning does not bar Chinese students from enrolling in American colleges. But scholars who have been following the changing dynamics between the two countries said the message holds weight.

“It moves from a possible nuisance to now a legitimate international policy concern,” said Jason E. Lane, dean of the University at Albany’s School of Education, who has studied global trends in higher education. “This is a major component of the international trade relationship that is often overlooked. But it’s real.”

U.S. actions paved the way in part for such a step, he said.

The FBI and the National Institutes of Health have urged campuses to protect their academics’ work after sensitive research has improperly landed in China. And colleges this year pared back on some research done in and funded by China. These restrictions have led many scholars of Chinese descent to feel unfairly targeted and to question whether younger Chinese academics would want to work in the U.S..

That’s a problem for the U.S. research enterprise, which has become increasingly dependent on money from and collaborations with China as domestic funding has stagnated.

Monday’s announcement shows that China is well aware that higher education is an American “pressure point,” said Mary Gallagher, director of the Center for Chinese Studies at the University of Michigan at Ann Arbor.

‘Unequivocal’ Support

Since relations between the U.S. and China normalized in the late 1970s, many scholars of Chinese descent came to the U.S. and put down roots at American universities. International students pay out-of-state tuition, which brought a financial boost to institutions craving revenue after the economic recession.

But the dynamics have shifted. In recent years, American colleges and associations have feared potential impact as the increase in international-student enrollment has slowed. Double-digit-percentage enrollment growth from China buoyed international enrollment from 2007 to 2014, according to the Institute for International Education. In the past three years, however, the year-over-year increase from China has slowed from 8.1 percent to 3.6 percent.

And the numbers of new international enrollment declined each year from fall 2015 to fall 2017, according to the institute’s 2018 annual census.

The impact of Monday’s message, Gallagher said, will be particularly significant in STEM research laboratories, many of whose researchers are from China.

Still, she said, any decline in enrollment cannot solely be attributed to the Chinese government’s statement. Chinese universities have improved in world rankings, she noted. China has also invested more in research, making it a sharper competitor for students and professors.

Allegations of espionage and fears of China’s scientific gains have also weakened ties with the United States. This year, reports of sensitive information ending up in China have brought attention from Washington to campus security practices.

Some U.S. officials even worry that educating Chinese students in high-tech fields could undermine America’s future, said Robert Daly, a director of the Kissinger Institute on China and the United States, at the Woodrow Wilson Center, at a March forum at the University of Colorado at Boulder.

Washington, he said at the event, wonders why U.S. universities “train Chinese scholars in American STEM fields if they are going to go back to China and strengthen its innovation system … and therefore its comprehensive national power.” Daly was not available for comment on Monday.

In other words, even before the Chinese government’s message, confidence in the U.S.’s continued position as a top destination for Chinese students was growing shaky.

Some U.S. colleges have limited their collaborations with and work in China. But others have stressed the importance of international professors and students, signaling that they still welcome Chinese students and professors.

“We pair our unequivocal commitment to careful research stewardship with another: International students and scholars are welcome and respected on our campus,” Yale University’s president, Peter Salovey, wrote in late May. His statement followed similar ones from institutions including the University of Michigan and the University of California at Davis.

Research associations and individual universities have also advocated for legislation that would bring together federal agencies in an effort to protect intellectual property and sensitive information.

After China’s warning, Michigan’s Gallagher said she expected university leaders to step up their calls to elected officials on a different front — ending the trade conflict.

Whether that will be effective, she said on Monday, is a whole other story.

Lindsay Ellis is a staff reporter. Follow her on Twitter @lindsayaellis, or email her at lindsay.ellis@chronicle.com.