The number of international students at American colleges plunged this fall, according to a just-released survey by the Institute of International Education, with new enrollments diving 43 percent as tens of thousands of students stuck overseas because of the pandemic deferred their admission or called off their studies altogether.
Although the current drop is without precedent, international enrollments had begun to decline even before Covid-19 struck, according to new data from the institute and the U.S. State Department. According to the annual “Open Doors” report, released on Monday, enrollments decreased nearly 2 percent in the fall of 2019.
Last year was the first time since the years immediately following the 2001 terror attacks that overall enrollments shrank. And it marked the fourth year in a row that the number of new international students fell, by just over half a percent.
While the annual Open Doors report tracks the prior year’s international enrollments across American higher education, the coronavirus meant there was particular interest in the accompanying snapshot survey, of 700 colleges, conducted this fall.
The pandemic has sealed borders, closed consulates, and halted international air travel, making it impossible for many new international students to begin their studies in the United States this fall — and raising concerns about whether next year’s freshman class will be able to go either. About one in five foreign students is currently taking classes online from overseas, according to the snapshot survey, which is conducted by the institute, known as IIE, and nine other higher-ed organizations.
Some 40,000 students elected to defer their studies. Allan Goodman, IIE’s president, cited that figure as a sign of pent-up demand and a reason for optimism. After past pandemics, when travel became safe again, there were surges of students, he said, noting that this is the 12th time the Open Doors report has been released during a pandemic. “There’s no reason to suspect at the end of this pandemic we won’t see a similar thing.”
But fall-2019 international-enrollment figures point to some fundamental weaknesses. Competition from other countries, improving educational options at home, and tougher visa and work restrictions have all undercut American higher education’s attractiveness. So, too, has the political situation in the United States, although that could change with the election of Joseph R. Biden Jr. Still, said Anna Esaki-Smith, an international-education researcher and consultant, “there were challenges that existed prior to Covid, and they will be there when the travel restrictions are lifted.”
Here are key takeaways from the Open Doors report:
The trouble comes from the top. Together, China and India, the top two sending countries, account for more than half of the 1.1 million international students in the United States. That means they set the trend for international enrollments. In the fall of 2019, the number of Chinese students was essentially flat, while the number of students from India fell more than 4 percent. By contrast, over the past decade the number of Chinese students had nearly tripled, said Mirka Martel, head of research for IIE.
The Trump administration had singled out Chinese students for special scrutiny and restrictions, part of a broader get-tough-on-China policy. In all, however, seven of the top 10 sending countries, and 14 of the top 20, saw declines.
Post-graduation work may not be as attractive. The number of student-visa holders taking part in Optional Practical Training, or OPT, the work program for international graduates, was stagnant in the fall of 2019. It’s a pronounced shift from prior years. In 2018, OPT participation increased by 10 percent; five years ago, it skyrocketed by 23 percent.
In part, OPT numbers had swelled because of an expansion of the program under President Barack Obama, which permitted students in certain in-demand science and technology fields to stay in the United States for as long as three years after graduation. (All students can stay for one year.) Once the initial bulge in STEM students passed, it had long been anticipated that growth would slow, Martel said.
But the Trump administration repeatedly accused international graduates of taking jobs from American workers, especially during the pandemic. Although officials did not follow through with a threat to curtail OPT, the uncertainty surrounding the program may have made employers less willing to hire international students — and students more hesitant to stay.
Colleges have sought to recruit internationally at home. That might not be so feasible. In recent years, colleges, particularly those with small international-recruitment budgets, have looked in their own backyards for international students, at community colleges, English-language programs, and high schools in the United States. All of those sources may be more limited in the future, the data suggest.
International enrollments at community colleges dropped by more than 8 percent, according to Open Doors, while non-degree students, many of whom are engaged in language study, fell nearly 7 percent. A separate report, released last week by IIE, found that the number of students on F-1 visas at American high schools had declined by 15 percent since 2016.
At all points in the pipeline, enrollments were down, including both at the graduate and undergraduate level.
International-enrollment declines are bad news for colleges. They’re also not good for the American economy. International students often pay higher out-of-state tuition rates and cover the full cost of their education, and their tuition dollars have increasingly become a critical revenue source for colleges. With pandemic-related cuts looming, it’s a loss few colleges can afford.
But international students’ financial impact stretches beyond campuses; they are frequently an important part of college-town economies. In 2019 the amount that international students contributed to the broader American economy fell by more than 4 percent, from $41 billion to $39 billion, according to new research from NAFSA: Association of International Educators, also released on Monday. It’s the first time in the two decades that the organization has collected such data that the economic contribution declined.
