Enrollment Goals Remain Elusive for Small Colleges

Everything depends on those two numbers. They hover over cabinet meetings, they keep presidents up at night. Each year colleges chase one goal for enrollment and another for net tuition revenue. Hitting those targets is crucial; missing them can lead to crisis.

Rare institutions, blessed with wealth and prestige, have five or 10 applicants, many with the ability to pay, for every spot. But on most campuses, there’s suspense until the last deposits roll in and the freshmen show up. Then comes celebration — or panic.

As the number of high-school graduates dwindles, and their demographics shift, many colleges are struggling to attract enough students and cover expenses. More than four in 10 private colleges and almost three in 10 public ones missed their goals for enrollment and tuition revenue this year, according to the fourth annual Chronicle survey of small colleges and midsize public universities. In cooperation with the Council of Independent Colleges and the American Association of State Colleges and Universities, The Chronicle polled 1,063 colleges, of which 447 responded: 315 private and 132 public campuses.

The share that missed both goals hasn’t changed markedly in the past four years:

In the latest admissions cycle, two-thirds of private colleges and more than half of public institutions missed at least one goal. The mark for tuition revenue seemed more elusive than for enrollment.

But for some campuses, the news was good. Nearly half of public colleges and about a third of private ones met both goals this year. But those successful shares were down over last year, and private colleges hit the lowest mark in the past four years. Even an official from a private college that exceeded its goals was stumped: “We do not yet know whether this represents a one-time show of success,” the official responded to the survey, “or an ongoing upward trend.”

One potentially worrisome trend is spending more to entice students to enroll. About four in 10 colleges — slightly more private institutions, slightly fewer public ones — reported increased spending on financial aid this year over last year. Almost half of private colleges and one-fifth of public institutions reported a higher discount rate, the average share of tuition covered by institutional aid, than last year. “Fewer students, higher discount,” one respondent wrote, “not good!”

Everyone knows the two targets are important, especially for colleges increasingly dependent on tuition revenue. Yet the numbers are more complicated than they may seem. How to set goals varies from campus to campus — and by sector. The number of freshmen one college seeks in a given year might reflect ambition or desperation, a long-term vision or a short-term plan. Many factors — population trends, state work-force needs, and institutional aspirations — shape the big, round numbers that enrollment managers must deliver.

“Some forecasts are built on hope and not necessarily on reality,” says Robert J. Massa, senior vice president for enrollment at Drew University, in New Jersey. “It’s my responsibility to say what a reasonable goal is.”

To determine what’s reasonable, Mr. Massa looks back at three to five years of enrollment data, then examines his pool of current prospects. His projections are plugged into the annual budgeting process. Eventually, two targets emerge. One is the official number, which is tied to the budget. “The other is the number we’re trying to achieve,” he says, “if all the stars align.”

This year Mr. Massa thought Drew could enroll about 400 freshmen at a 55-percent discount rate. Working with his chief financial officer, he settled on a safer target: 385 students at a 58-percent discount rate. In the end, though, the university fell well short of its official goal, enrolling 350 first-year students.

Sometimes long-term strategies can help explain a shortfall. Drew, which seeks to attract more high-achieving students, opted to become significantly more selective this year. It also managed to lower its discount rate by 10 percentage points. Both of those outcomes will serve the university well down the line, Mr. Massa believes. But for now, he says, “it’s not Easy Street.”

Enrollment and revenue goals aren’t static. This year, 32 percent of private colleges and 22 percent of public institutions revised their tuition-revenue goal downward at least once. As for the enrollment target, 28 percent of private colleges lowered it as the year went on, as did 19 percent of public institutions.

On some campuses, enrollment goals don’t budge even when circumstances change. Northeastern State University, in Oklahoma, has seen its enrollment decline steadily over the past five years. “There’s a plethora of challenges,” says Mark Arant, provost and vice president of academic affairs. The state’s up-and-down petroleum industry, minimal population growth, and growing competition from big-name institutions, he explains, have driven the university’s numbers down.

Yet Northeastern State has committed to helping the state meet its own ambitious goal for the number of residents with a bachelor’s degree. To do its part, the university needs an overall enrollment of 11,000 by 2023. Progress isn’t good. This year the university hoped to enroll about 8,450 students, but it fell 300 short. That also meant nearly $700,000 in lost revenue, the provost figures.To increase enrollment, the university is now focusing on improving recruitment, enhancing advising, and planning for accelerated degree programs. Recently, it has seen growth in its business school, and new programs in cybersecurity and social work. “Overall, we might be down, but we’re adjusting our goals toward our strengths,” Mr. Arant says. “We’ve got to create a new audience.”

For colleges that missed their enrollment goal, tuition-revenue goal, or both goals this year, the survey asked how they might respond. Improving enrollment-management operations, starting new programs to attract students, and investing in marketing remain popular options, though less so for public colleges this year than in the previous two. One strategy became slightly more popular for private colleges this year: eliminating low-enrollment academic programs.

As crucial as a top-line enrollment goal is for any college, a single number doesn’t tell the whole story. “There are goals within goals,” says Madeleine E. Rhyneer, vice president for enrollment and marketing at Susquehanna University, in Pennsylvania. “Even when you meet the enrollment goal, there’s always some small piece that wasn’t quite perfect.” Maybe the number of out-of-state students declined, or the gender balance of the class shifted, or too many engineering majors enrolled.

At the end of another admissions cycle, even good news can cause problems. Seeing enrollment goals surpassed has a way of raising a college’s expectations — often to unrealistic heights.

Last year Susquehanna enrolled a record-high 668 freshmen and hit its revenue goal for the first time in years. Ms. Rhyneer warned her colleagues not to expect the same kind of surge this year. She was right: The university ended up with 645 freshmen this year.

“You don’t want people to believe this is the new minimum benchmark, because there’s just so much volatility,” she says. “Sometimes there’s this notion that you can pull a rabbit out of a hat every year.”

Eric Hoover writes about admissions trends, enrollment-management challenges, and the meaning of Animal House, among other issues. He’s on Twitter @erichoov, and his email address is eric.hoover@chronicle.com.

Sara Lipka edits coverage of campus life and other topics. Follow her on Twitter @chronsara, or email her at sara.lipka@chronicle.com.