Morgan Volkart and her admissions colleagues have been spending this week in marathon meetings to finalize offers of admission to Lehigh University’s Class of 2024. It’s an exercise always tinged with uncertainty, but this year the process is shot through with anxiety. As the coronavirus spreads to 77 countries and counting, the question is, Will students from around the globe be able to study in America?
But Volkart, Lehigh’s associate vice provost for international recruitment, and her fellow officers have to proceed as if it’s any other year, and admit students who would be the best fit for Lehigh — even if they’re from China, whose citizens are currently barred from entering the United States.
“We can only base our decisions on the information we have, so the coronavirus just can’t come into play in our decision-making process,” she said. Still, in the back of her mind, she acknowledged, she is thinking about “Plan B, Plan C, Plan D.”
For American colleges at the height of the admissions season, the outbreak of the contagious respiratory illness is forcing them to work on parallel tracks. On one, it’s business as usual. On the other, they are planning for contingencies, including the possibility that Covid-19, the coronavirus’s formal name, could prevent large groups of international students from enrolling next fall.
A sudden decline, even a temporary one, in overseas enrollments could deprive colleges of the academic, cultural, and social benefits they bring. It could also be an enormous financial blow to many institutions, which have come to rely on international students and their tuition dollars. The 1.1 million international students in the United States contribute $41 billion annually to the American economy, according to NAFSA: Association of International Educators.
This to me is already more significant than anything I’ve had to deal with in my career.
That unprecedented level of internationalization — along with the global nature of the disease outbreak — means colleges can consult no past playbook to prepare for the coronavirus, said Ronald B. Cushing, director of international services at the University of Cincinnati and a veteran international educator. “This to me is already more significant than anything I’ve had to deal with in my career.”
In a survey released on Thursday by the Institute of International Education, three-quarters of colleges said that outreach to and recruitment of Chinese students had been affected by Covid-19.
Advance Planning
For admissions officers, one of the most immediate issues is how to make decisions without materials that may be missing from student applications because of the shutdown of schools or universities in a number of countries, including China, Italy, Japan, and the United Arab Emirates. The University of North Texas is letting students send in transcripts late if they are unable to obtain them, said Pia Wood, vice provost for international affairs.
With sittings of language-proficiency exams canceled in China, the university is also permitting students to submit scores from Duolingo, a digital language-proficiency assessment test that students can take without leaving home. The coronavirus has prompted other colleges to accept Duolingo scores, and test volume from China was up 180 percent in the last month, said Sam Dalsimer, head of public relations for the online language platform.
The shutdowns have also raised questions about whether students will graduate on time. Some high schools, particularly international schools that cater to expatriates, have been teaching courses online, but others have been out of class since mid-January, said Lehigh’s Volkart. West Virginia University, which accepts many international students through joint degree programs, is concerned about whether students will complete the first part of their programs in China and be able to transfer to studies in the United States, said William I. Brustein, vice president for global strategies and international affairs.
As colleges and universities have struggled to devise policies to respond to the quickly evolving situation, here are links to The Chronicle’s key coverage of how this worldwide health crisis is affecting campuses.
It’s also far from certain what sort of travel restrictions could be in place next August and September, when the new academic year begins. Noncitizens traveling from China and Iran, another coronavirus hot spot, are currently prohibited from entering the United States, and heightened screening is in place for those coming from Italy and South Korea. In China, all visa interviews were suspended after U.S. Embassy staff members were pulled from the country.
Educators say they have been given little information about when the interviews could resume. Cushing said Cincinnati was continuing to issue visa paperwork to students so they could get in line when embassy appointments are again scheduled, but he is bracing for significant processing backlogs.
At Michigan State University, administrators have begun to discuss what to do if some or all international students are not able to arrive on the campus in time for the start of the fall semester. The options include allowing students to enroll in online courses and automatically deferring students’ admission to the spring. But adopting such options takes a lot of advanced planning by groups across the campus, said Patty Croom, director of international-student admissions. Ramping up online courses, for example, requires collaboration between academic departments and information-technology services.
At Lehigh, some 50 Chinese students have already accepted early-decision offers and paid deposits. The challenge is how to reassure those students that they still have a place at the Pennsylvania college, said Cheryl Matherly, vice provost for international affairs. “The message we’re sending is we’re so excited to have you — and here’s all the stuff we know you are worried about.”
Longer-Term Impact
Michigan State typically holds pre-departure orientations and receptions for newly admitted international students in their home countries throughout the spring. All university travel to China is prohibited, but the constantly shifting situation means that other destinations could suddenly become places to avoid as well, Croom said. She just canceled an event, planned for this Saturday in the United Arab Emirates, after the government closed all schools there. Instead, admissions counselors will host webinars and rely on email and social media to reach out to students.
Croom is already thinking ahead to the fall, when a half-dozen Michigan State admissions officers typically fan out across the globe. Even if travel restrictions are lifted, high schools may balk at hosting international visitors, and recruitment fairs and other large gatherings could be curtailed.
The coronavirus could lead colleges to change their approach to international recruitment, making permanent the practices they adopted during the crisis, said Benjamin Waxman, chief executive of Intead, a global education-marketing firm. They could turn more to online recruitment or look closer to home for international students, recruiting them from local high schools or community colleges and limiting overseas travel.
Still, questions persist about whether overseas study will bounce back. New international enrollments on American campuses have declined for the past three years, due to geopolitical tensions, tougher visa policies, and increased global competition. The coronavirus could be one more hit, perhaps a knockout blow, some worry.
The coronavirus’s swift spread has exposed the vulnerabilities of a globally interconnected world, and it could prompt some families to keep their children close to home.
The outbreak has taken a toll on the world economy, causing stock markets around the world to drop and straining global trade. In China, forced quarantines have kept many people out of work. Will parents who run small, family-owned businesses still be able to afford to send their children abroad? And will they want to? The coronavirus’s swift spread has exposed the vulnerabilities of a globally interconnected world, and it could prompt some families to keep their children close to home.
“It’s what if, what if, what if?” Croom said.
A recent survey of student-recruitment agents in China found that two-thirds of them anticipate a decline in the number of students going abroad this year. But an equal share say students will ultimately follow their original plans to study overseas. “This is a long-term plan and commitment,” said Jon Santangelo, a spokesman for the Beijing Overseas Study Service Association and the China Overseas Study Service Alliance, the groups that conducted the survey. “Families see education as a critical value.”
Brustein, the vice president at West Virginia, noted that international enrollments had suffered “bumps in the road” before. After the September 11 terror attacks, for example, the number of international students dropped by about 4 percent, as the U.S. government tightened visa restrictions and students stayed away. But those numbers later rebounded.
“These are shocks to the system,” Brustein said. “But we can absorb them and move forward.”
