Could universities in the United States and elsewhere benefit from post-Brexit perceptions that Britain is no longer a welcoming country?
A new survey suggests that prospective international students are already reconsidering whether to study in Britain after citizens there voted in June to leave the European Union. And other countries could benefit from a potential brain drain of top academics and a possible drying up of research funds flowing from Europe to British institutions.
Of course, the question remains whether the United States, which faces its own pivotal election this fall, can take advantage.
More than a third of about 1,000 prospective students surveyed in early July by Hobsons, a global education-services company, indicated they were having second thoughts about going to Britain, and 6 percent said they would definitely not study there.
Much of the focus has been on a likely fall-off of students from within the European Union, who currently pay the same tuition as do British students and have access to the British student-loan system. But 87 percent of those surveyed were from non-E.U. countries, which suggests deeper concerns are at play, not just the specter of an increase in student fees.
The largest share of students in the survey, 60 percent, said the perception that Britain is less open to those from abroad could make them less likely to study there, but respondents said fears that it could be harder to get a student visa post-Brexit or to find a job after graduation could also influence their choice.
Other countries could gain if international students bypass Britain. Canada could be the biggest winner, with 32 percent of students surveyed saying that with the referendum’s passage they would be more likely to study there. About 20 percent of students selected either Australia, Germany, or the United States as an alternative destination.
There’s some precedent for American colleges’ benefiting from drop-offs in international enrollments in Britain. Over the last couple of years, for example, American institutions have seen a surge in applicants from India, partly because a stricter British visa policy made it harder for foreign students to stay and work there after graduation.
But the United States could soon face its own headwinds when recruiting overseas. In a separate survey this spring, some 60 percent of prospective international students said they would be less likely to study at an American college if the Republican nominee, Donald J. Trump, is elected president. Mr. Trump has at times embraced nativist rhetoric and advocated policies perceived as hostile to those from abroad, such as banning Muslims, including international students, from entering the United States.
Paul Raybould, director of marketing and market intelligence at Hobsons, speculated that some students turned off by the British vote might still consider the United States a viable alternative because the presidential election here is yet to be decided. Brexit, he said, “is reality.”
Hobsons is advising its British-university clients to take a “positive, proactive” approach to countering Brexit. University leaders were strong proponents of staying in the European Union, and in many of Britain’s college towns the vote against Brexit was lopsided, with up to 70 percent of those voters wanting to remain, notes Paul Teulon, director of admissions and registry services at King’s College London. He’s trying to convey the message that his institution, and British higher education, remains open and hospitable.
Gains for Britain?
In the short term, in fact, there are some signs Britain could see a boost in international enrollments. Hotcourses Ltd., which publishes websites and guides for students who want to study overseas, reports an uptick in international-student searches for British universities in the four weeks following the Brexit referendum.
Aaron Porter, the company’s director of insights, says the increase in searches could reflect European Union students who are seeking to go to Britain while they remain eligible for lower tuition and loans. A decline in the value of the British pound may also make a degree more affordable to foreign students.
Or, Mr. Porter says, “maybe it’s an example of the old adage there’s no such thing as bad news.”
Still, most observers expect a decline in students from abroad; the question is when. Formal negotiations about leaving the E.U. are not expected to begin for months, perhaps not until after French and German elections next year, leaving British universities operating under a “cloud of uncertainty,” said Elspeth Jones, a professor emerita at Leeds Beckett University. “It’s the uncertainty that’s the worst of it.”
Nor is the prospect of declining international-student numbers the only challenge facing British higher education. British universities have claimed a disproportionate share of European Union research grants, with the 24 universities in the Russell Group, Britain’s Ivy League, winning more in grants from the European Research Council than any single country, says Steve Smith, vice chancellor of the University of Exeter.
While many academics hope that Britain will negotiate continued participation in European research programs, as a number of other non-E.U. countries, like Norway and Switzerland, have done, there are rumors that British researchers are already being taken off E.U. grant applications. That could lead British professors to look to universities elsewhere, such as the United States, for international collaborators.
The prospect of diminishing money for research, and the possibility of falling salaries thanks to a devalued pound, could lure researchers away from British universities or cause promising young academics to pursue careers in other countries.
“U.K. funding for universities is very fragile,” says Alex Usher, a global higher-education consultant based in Canada. “If you’re a British university, what’s going for you is that it’s not like anyone else in the English-speaking world is flush with cash.”
Karin Fischer writes about international education, colleges and the economy, and other issues. She’s on Twitter @karinfischer, and her email address is karin.fischer@chronicle.com.
