International Grad Students’ Interest in American Higher Ed Marks First Decline in 14 Years

Todd Bigelow for The Chronicle

For the first time in more than a decade, applications and enrollments by international graduate students at American colleges and universities declined in 2016-17, a new study has found. The study, conducted by the Council of Graduate Schools, suggests a continued softening of interest in American institutions among foreign grad students, an ebbing that was noted a year ago.

First-time enrollment rates for international graduate students declined by 1 percent from the fall-2016 to the fall-2017 admission cycles. In addition, final application counts from international graduate students declined by 3 percent. Though the overall percentages are small, the wide range of countries reporting drops suggests that the United States may be becoming less appealing.

It is the first time since the fall of 2003 that international graduate applications and first-time enrollment rates dropped, according to the International Graduate Applications and Enrollment survey, the basis for the study, which was scheduled for release on Tuesday. The survey was first conducted in 2004 as a way to track application and enrollment patterns for international graduate students coming to the United States after the September 11, 2001, terrorist attacks.

One cause of the recent drops was President Trump’s travel ban, which has been partly blocked by the courts since it was first rolled out, in January 2017, but has signaled that the United States may no longer be as welcoming to foreign visitors as it once was. That shift in policy may have affected the numbers of applications and enrollment rates between the fall-2016 and fall-2017 admission cycles, said Hironao Okahana, the lead researcher on the survey.

But the policy change and the “America First” rhetoric of President Trump are not solely responsible for the declines.

Other factors that could have curtailed the flow of international graduate students include the economy and work-force needs of students’ home countries, Okahana said, though he added that it would be difficult to pinpoint the most important factor.

This is only the second report by the council to observe a year-to-year decline in both applications and first-time enrollment rates. International students make up 24 percent of first-time students enrolled in graduate programs, and for many colleges and universities they are both a key source of tuition revenue and an important pool of teaching and research assistants.

Yield Rates Hold Steady

Many countries that are major sources of international graduate students, including India, Iran, and Saudi Arabia, reported dropoffs. India’s retrenchment may be especially concerning. That country and China continue to be the two largest nations of origin of international graduate students in the United States.

But Indian graduate students’ applications and first-time enrollment rates declined by 15 percent and 13 percent respectively, from 2016 to 2017, continuing a weakening that started in 2015-16, when Indian enrollments dropped by 7 percent.

International graduate applications from Iran and Saudi Arabia dropped by 18 percent and 21 percent, respectively While Saudi enrollment declined by only 2 percent, Iranian enrollment dropped by 16 percent.

Conversely, European graduate-student applications to American institutions rose by 18 percent, but saw only a 1-percent increase in enrollment rates.

Despite the declines, American graduate education seems still to be alluring, as yield rates remained steady.

“International students continue to recognize the value of U.S. education,” Okahana said. “Some of these programs give work training and work experience that they can presumably take back to their home country and be competitive in the work force there.”

Master’s programs were especially popular. This year about 77 percent of first-time international graduate-student enrollments were in master’s degree or certificate programs.

Colleges and universities are committed to encouraging international students to apply and enroll, Okahana said. The acceptance rate, which was comparable to that of the previous year, stemmed from institutions’ efforts to “assure prospective students and their family members that the United States is a welcoming place” for people from around the world.

When significant numbers of international students attend graduate school, it helps both them and American students, Okahana said. “Our domestic students benefit from training alongside these international students,” he said, “and our U.S. students do need the experience of learning and working in culturally diverse environments to be prepared for a globalized workplace.”