International-Student Enrollment Is Slowing — and It Isn’t All Donald Trump’s Fault

The number of international students in the United States hit a new high in the fall of 2016, topping 1.08 million, according to a report just released by the Institute of International Education and the U.S. Department of State.

But the shiny record obscures a grimmer truth. Even before the ascension of Donald J. Trump to a presidency notable for its hostility to global engagement and to foreigners themselves, international student recruitment had already begun to ebb, auguring the end of a decade of muscular growth.

Though the overall number of student-visa holders increased during the past academic year, their ranks were buoyed not by a fresh entering class but by graduates staying on to work. The number of first-time students from abroad actually fell in 2016 by 3 percent, or some 10,000 students, the annual Open Doors report shows.

At the same time, participation in the postgraduate work program soared 19 percent, thanks, in part, to an expansion under President Obama to allow those with science and engineering degrees to remain in the country for as long as 36 months. (All foreign graduates can stay and work for at least a year.) Because they continue to hold student visas, graduates taking part in the program, known as Optional Practical Training, count toward college enrollment totals.

And a spot survey conducted this fall by the institute and other higher-education groups contains more troubling news. The nearly 500 responding colleges reported an average drop of 7 percent in new international students and a flattening of total enrollments.

While this fall’s results are only preliminary, a sizable dip in international enrollments would be a big deal for colleges, which have come to rely on international students, for both diversity and the tuition dollars they bring. In 2016, international students had a $39.4-billion impact on the American economy, according to U.S. Department of Commerce estimates.

“We’re not at a point where this is a crisis,” says Rajika Bhandari, head of research, policy, and practice at the Institute of International Education, “but it certainly is a wake-up call.”

A decline this fall in international enrollments had widely been expected — and dreaded — ever since President Trump issued an executive order barring travelers, including students, from a half-dozen largely Muslim countries just days after he took office in January. Though the travel ban applied to just 1 percent of all international students enrolled in American colleges, and court challenges mostly halted its enforcement, the policy was nonetheless seen as having a chilling effect on foreign recruitment.

An Uneven Impact

The ban’s impact has not been felt evenly, however. While about half of colleges taking part in the snapshot survey said new international enrollments decreased this fall, a quarter reported no change from the previous year and 30 percent actually saw enrollment gains. More-selective institutions, those that accept less than 25 percent of applicants, tended to fare well, Ms. Bhandari says, while enrollment falloffs were concentrated among those colleges that admitted a larger share of applicants. Associate- and master’s-degree institutions also experienced more precipitous declines in the spot survey.

An imbalance in enrollments is not a new dynamic. For instance, a 2015 Chronicle analysis of a decade’s worth of international enrollment data found that those institutions with the largest numbers of overseas students experienced the greatest increases in market share. In all, just 10 percent of colleges accounted for 70 percent of the surge in international-student numbers over the past 10 years.

Still, widespread and unparalleled growth — foreign enrollments rose by nearly 75 percent over that time — may have helped paper over the inequities. When almost everyone is gaining, it’s easy to overlook the fact that some winners are bigger than others. And some have been very big indeed: In the fall of 2016, eight institutions enrolled more than 10,000 international students apiece.

“The segmentation in the market was always there,” says Rahul Choudaha, executive vice president of global engagement and research at StudyPortals, an online search platform for international students, “but now it matters more.” Institutions with greater brand identity overseas may be better positioned to weather a tougher environment, he says.

“Many institutions were able to ride on this wave of growth, but as the tide turns, institutions without strong international visibility and experience are more vulnerable.”

The international-student boom, combined with steady public disinvestment in higher education, encouraged colleges with little expertise in enrolling international students to jump into overseas recruiting. Such efforts may have too often been opportunistic rather than strategic, leaving colleges vulnerable to shifting global sentiment about studying in the United States.

Institutions that didn’t do enough to ensure that students had a positive on-campus experience, both in the classroom and out, could harm their overseas reputation, says Mr. Choudaha. And Ms. Bhandari says that colleges hit hard by declines may have put too many of their recruitment eggs in a single basket, drawing the bulk of their students from a single country or region.

In this fall’s snapshot survey, colleges reported a steep decline in interest from India, where students and families harbor concerns about the less-welcoming environment under the Trump administration as well as about potential changes to visa policy.

In enrollment totals for 2016, however, Brazil and Saudi Arabia recorded the sharpest skids. The majority of students from both countries rely on generous scholarship programs to fund their education, and both governments have curtailed their support.

Enrollments plunged by 14 percent in nondegree programs, mostly English-language study. Large numbers of Saudis and Brazilians are studying English. In addition, such programs are often seen as discretionary, meaning that when foreign-student growth slows, they can be the first to experience declines.

Also contributing to the slowing growth: more modest interest from China, which accounts for one of every three international students studying in the United States. While total Chinese enrollments grew by 7 percent, such increases were off the double-digit pace of much of the last 10 years.

Mr. Trump’s presidency may serve as the curtain call to a decade in which unprecedented year-over-year growth in international enrollments became the norm. Still, the fact that the slowdown began before the election suggests that it’s not possible to pin the change solely on the so-called Trump effect. Such rapid expansion was unsustainable in the long term, observers say.

While concerns about softening overseas interest have caused consternation, ultimately, they could lead colleges to be more creative and thoughtful in their international admissions strategy. Already, colleges have reported recruiting in less-traditional source countries, in Africa and Southeast Asia. They have also doubled down on efforts to improve their yield of accepted students, such as increasing financial aid for those from abroad and reaching out proactively to prospective students and their families to discuss any worries.

What’s more, the United States remains a desirable location for college study, offering both a quality and diversity of institutions unmatched by any other country. Even with a slowdown, it remains far and away the top destination for foreign students.

Ms. Bhandari points to Canada, which has been perhaps the biggest beneficiary of a weaker American market. The number of international students at Canadian universities did indeed skyrocket in 2016, shooting up close to 20 percent.

But even with that growth, Canadian institutions enroll just a third of the foreign students as do their neighbors to the south.

Karin Fischer writes about international education, colleges and the economy, and other issues. She’s on Twitter @karinfischer, and her email address is karin.fischer@chronicle.com.

International-Enrollment Leaders
Overall international-student enrollments grew only modestly and the number of first-time foreign students fell, according to the latest Open Doors report. But the bigs are getting bigger -- the institutions with the largest numbers of international students posted robust enrollment gains in the 2016 academic year.