John Engler Is 3 Votes Away From Getting Fired. Here’s How That Could Happen.

One by one, and then all of a sudden, they left him.

For John M. Engler, Michigan State University’s interim president, political allies are disappearing like Homer Simpson into shrubbery.

This is particularly remarkable for a former Republican governor, whose legislative savvy was considered his greatest asset.

Now Engler’s fate rests with eight elected trustees, who could vote to fire him as early as a Friday meeting. The trustees typically conduct business by a simple majority vote, and there is no suggestion in the bylaws of a higher bar for a presidential removal. Engler was tapped as the university’s acting leader in January, following the resignation of Lou Anna K. Simon, who surrendered the permanent post only when the political pressure from Michigan State’s sexual-abuse scandal became unbearable. Far from stabilizing things, Engler has managed to make enemies of the women who survived abuse by Larry Nassar, a former university sports doctor whose serial crimes have landed him in prison for what will probably be the rest of his life.

Engler has been under increasing pressure to step down since Wednesday, when The Chronicle published an email in which the interim president impugned the motives of an abuse victim. In an email to a colleague, Engler suggested that Rachael J. Denhollander, the first woman to publicly accuse Nassar, was likely to get a “kickback” from her lawyer for stirring up fellow survivors.

The Nassar Scandal and the Crisis of Michigan State’s President

Within a year the university lost two chief executives — Lou Anna K. Simon, sank by the scathing, heart-rending testimony of the sports doctor’s scores of victims, and John M. Engler, whose interim presidency ended amid a backlash over his bare-knuckled tactics.

• With Criminal Charges Dismissed Against Michigan State’s Ex-President, Sex-Abuse Accountability Hits Skids Again
• Michigan State’s Ex-President, Who Faces Criminal Charges, Will Retire With a $2.5-Million Payout
• At Michigan State, a Disruptive Presidency That Few Could Muster the Will to End

Now Engler, an experienced politician, has a deeply political problem that he is struggling to solve. In a growing swell, lawmakers in both parties have called on him to resign. Included in the list are Brian N. Calley, the current lieutenant governor, who is running as a Republican for governor.

Arlan B. Meekhof, the Republican Senate majority leader, also wants Engler out.

Engler thus far has dug in, saying he plans to stay the course until a permanent successor is named. Effectively, he has put his fate in the hands of the board, where support has begun to erode. Two trustees, both of whom are Democrats, have already said Engler should resign. In short succession on Friday, Brian Mosallam, a former Spartan football player, and Dianne Y. Byrum, a former Democratic lawmaker, said Engler should go.

Rest assured, Engler is counting noses. Three more votes, and he is out. So, from where might those votes come? No one knows for certain, and divining how an individual trustee might vote on such a sensitive issue is an exercise in speculation. At the same time, it is fair to consider how, in this particular case, political affiliation, personal loyalty, and public pressure might influence the outcome. Take these scenarios with a heaping grain of salt, but here goes:

The Path to 5 Votes

Often these matters never come to a vote. If the will exists to fire a public-university president, phone calls from governors or board leaders typically do the trick. But if Engler, who said on Friday that he continues to “look ahead,” and gave no indication that he would resign, seeks to fight this, there are a few ways in which the board could get to the five votes necessary to fire him.

Let’s start with the chairman, Brian Breslin, a Republican. He has been silent on the issue of Engler’s departure, and he did not respond to inquiries from The Chronicle. Breslin’s political background is worth noting. He worked as appointments manager for Rick Snyder, Michigan’s Republican governor, although Breslin has since resigned the job.

This is where the politics get interesting. Snyder, Breslin’s former boss, has endorsed Calley to be Michigan’s next governor, and Calley’s push for Engler to resign could put pressure on Breslin to go along or at least give Breslin cover to do so.

It’s far from a slam dunk, but Calley’s stance makes a Breslin vote more possible to imagine than it was just a few days ago.

So let’s consider the board’s two remaining Democrats. Would they go along with Byrum and Mosallam? If past is prologue, Engler needn’t worry about Joel I. Ferguson, the board’s vice chairman. Even in the darkest days of the Nassar scandal, Ferguson stuck with Simon and wasn’t particularly concerned with “this Nassar thing.” Ferguson has a particularly contentious relationship with Mosallam, who has led the charge for Engler’s resignation — and who is prepared to support Engler’s firing.

Among Democrats, that leaves George J. Perles, a former Spartan football coach. Perles, in a brief phone interview on Monday, would not tell The Chronicle whether he believes Engler should resign. “I just don’t want to discuss it like this,” he said. “I really would like to say nothing about it.”

Perles, who is nearly 84 years old and has had health problems of late, did say that he plans to attend the trustees’ meeting on Friday. Despite his silence on the Engler question, there is a case to be made that Perles would follow the lead of Mosallam, who played under Perles at Michigan State.

If football loyalties matter, which they oughtn’t but might, this brings us to Mitchell (Mitch) W. Lyons, a former Spartan tight end. Lyons, a Republican, played under Perles and briefly alongside Mosallam. (Lyons was the first trustee to break ranks, in January, and call on Simon to resign.)

If the football caucus — Lyons/Mosallam/Perles — votes as a bloc, the board would need just one more vote to fire Engler. (This presumes that Byrum, who has called on Engler to resign, would vote to fire him if he does not step down.)

If the fifth vote did not come from Breslin, another option is Melanie Foster. As one of just two women on the board, Foster has a particular obligation to stand with them, some survivors have argued. Foster is a Republican who was first appointed to the board, from 1991 to 1992, by Engler. So there are presumably political loyalties to the former governor. At the same time, Foster lives in East Lansing, where she is likely to encounter abuse survivors and victims’ advocates regularly. Few trustees can expect as much heat on this issue as Foster.

The last remaining trustee, Daniel J. Kelly, a Republican, said last week that he did not “support asking the president to resign.” But Kelly is seen as a pragmatist, and his newness to the board — less than two years — makes him more of a wild card.

The prospect of Engler’s firing, which seemed like a long shot just a few days ago, no longer seems quite so far fetched. But one procedural sticking point is worth mentioning, as it could potentially gum up the works, even if a majority want him gone. According to the board’s policy manual, a supermajority of six trustees is necessary to add a motion or a resolution to the agenda that was not included in the materials that were mailed in advance to board members — and the trustees have already received those materials for Friday’s meeting.

Michigan State officials did not immediately respond to questions on Monday about procedures for removing Engler.

James H. Finkelstein, an expert on presidential contracts, said it is difficult to discern how relevant the procedures would be in this case. University boards often take liberties, particularly in a crisis, with their own bylaws, he said.

“They don’t always operate according to their own rules,” said Finkelstein, a professor of public policy at George Mason University. “They don’t operate according to strict parliamentary procedures. It would normally be up to the board secretary to enforce those rules.”

Even board members who do not support Engler’s removal, he added, may support bringing the matter to a vote.

No matter what happens, Finkelstein added, Michigan State is headed toward the kind of leadership showdown that invariably damages the university and all parties involved.

“Hanging on to these kinds of jobs in the face of this kind of controversy never ends well for anybody, for the individual or the institution,” Finkelstein said. “Right now Engler has made himself a part of the controversy. That’s unfortunate for Michigan State.”

Correction (6/21/2018, 11:59 p.m.): This article originally stated that Brian Breslin had taken a leave from his post as appointments manager for Gov. Rick Snyder. Breslin has resigned the job.

Jack Stripling covers college leadership, particularly presidents and governing boards. Follow him on Twitter @jackstripling, or email him at jack.stripling@chronicle.com.