Many Colleges See a Drop in International Students, Chronicle Survey Finds

As students arrive on campuses for the fall semester, fewer of their classmates are likely to be from overseas, a new Chronicle survey has found.

The survey, conducted in partnership with the Association of International Education Administrators, or AIEA, found a decidedly mixed picture for new international enrollments. About 40 percent of American colleges that responded to the survey reported a drop in first-time foreign undergraduates, with a majority of that group experiencing declines of 10 percent or more. A similar share of institutions saw falling master’s-degree enrollments from abroad, while interest in doctoral programs largely held steady.

The findings of the survey, conducted in the first weeks of the new academic year, are not the enrollment Armageddon that many feared after the Trump administration moved this year to ban travelers from a half-dozen predominantly Muslim countries, and stepped up vetting of international visitors, including those using student visas.

Still, the survey — as well as interviews with a number of administrators — hints at potential trouble ahead. Many colleges that held the line on enrollments did so by doubling down on yield, intensifying efforts to ensure that admitted students actually enrolled. In effect, they were running just to stay in place.

What’s more, the White House attempted to impose the travel ban in January, deep into the admissions cycle, when students had already decided to study in America and many had applied to colleges. That timing might have blunted the so-called Trump effect on this fall’s incoming class, educators say, but it raises the possibility that, a year from now, international enrollments could truly take a hit.

‘The Tip of an Iceberg’?

Thomas Bogenschild, chair of the AIEA’s policy-advisory committee, said he was heartened that the survey’s findings were not “catastrophic.” But, said Mr. Bogenschild, executive director of global education at the University of Oregon, “this could be the tip of an iceberg — we don’t know for sure.”

Even though some institutions held their own, the fall of 2017 almost certainly represents a break with more than a decade of continuous and sometimes explosive growth in international enrollments. The number of overseas students on American campuses last year topped one million, an all-time high and nearly double a decade earlier.

Some 85 American colleges responded to the Chronicle-AIEA survey, which was conducted from mid- to late August. Because of the timing, some institutions had not yet finalized their enrollment totals and so reported only preliminary data.

The respondents skewed toward brand-name research institutions, which may be better positioned to weather volatility in overseas interest, given their global reputations, than are lesser-known institutions.

In addition to enrollment totals, colleges were quizzed about their enrollment goals. Nearly half of the respondents said they had failed to meet targets for undergraduate enrollments, with most saying that they had fallen short by 5 percent or more.

On the master’s-degree level, about 45 percent of those surveyed said they had missed enrollment targets. A nearly equal number, however, said they had hit their marks. In some cases, colleges had lower enrollment compared with 2016 but said they had made their targets. That suggests they may have anticipated losses and revised their goals.

Master’s-degree programs are often the most susceptible to international-enrollment shifts because they are shorter term and more easily delayed. (Colleges generally reported meeting enrollment targets for doctoral programs.)

Faced with falling applications, some institutions sprang into action to try not to lose ground on enrollments. At Texas State University, officials stepped up outreach to those who had been admitted, to let them know they were wanted and to try to proactively respond to any questions or concerns. For instance, the university enlisted faculty members to contact students who hadn’t completed critical steps, like filing visa paperwork, said Ryan Buck, assistant vice president for international affairs.

The university, a Hispanic-serving institution that recruits heavily in Latin America, also hired a Mexican-born director of Latin American engagement who could talk directly to the Spanish-speaking parents of prospective students. Texas State met its enrollment goals at the graduate level and actually enrolled more international undergraduates than expected.

Indiana University-Purdue University at Indianapolis saw a small bump in overall international enrollments, although there was softening, particularly at the master’s level, said Sara K. Allaei, executive director of international affairs. The university offset those declines by improving enrollments among transfer students, both those coming from partner institutions overseas and those already studying in the United States at community colleges.

“It helped us close the gap,” Ms. Allaei said.

Enrollment Slowdown

Lehigh University, where undergraduate enrollment of international students bucked trends and jumped 5 percent, intensified its recruitment of foreign students at American high schools. That population, said Morgan Volkart, head of international recruiting, is almost guaranteed to want to attend college in the United States.

Lehigh may also have benefited from a decision to focus on enrolling more international students through early decision, by allocating more financial aid to those applicants than in the past. The university’s two early-decision deadlines, November 15 and January 1, both occurred before the travel ban was put in place — though, Ms. Volkart pointed out, they fell after a presidential campaign frequently marked by nativist, anti-foreigner rhetoric.

A number of colleges reported increasing scholarship awards for international students, though with mixed results. Beloit College, for example, increased merit aid for foreign students. The effort helped the liberal-arts college in Wisconsin double its number of international freshmen in 2016, said Elizabeth Brewer, director of international education, but this fall new enrollments dropped, from 80 to 56.

Ms. Brewer, however, said she hesitated to pin the enrollment decline on the current political climate. It may just be that competition for international students is becoming more heated, she said.

Indeed, colleges responding to the survey pointed to several factors that predate the Trump administration and that may be contributing to an enrollment slowdown, including the cresting of an enormous wave of Chinese applicants and significant cuts in a number of foreign-government scholarship programs.

More often, though, they identified issues more closely tied to the new administration, such as increased scrutiny of student-visa applications and higher rejection rates. John Sunnygard, executive director of international affairs at the University of Colorado at Denver, said one student had been refused entry to the country by Department of Homeland Security officials after he landed at the airport in Denver. That’s never happened before, Mr. Sunnygard said.

Stepping Up Recruitment

Ms. Allaei of IUPUI said she had been told point-blank by college counselors in India that they wouldn’t be recommending that their students study in the United States because of security concerns and because of potential policy changes that could make it more difficult to stay and work after graduation. Other colleges also identified India as a market that is especially volatile; at Texas State, Indian applications dropped 40 percent this year.

Mr. Buck, the head of international affairs there, said he was trying to tackle such concerns head-on, by including data in the university’s marketing materials about the number and employers of foreign students who work after graduation through a special program known as optional practical training.

Other institutions also are stepping up efforts as the new student-recruitment season begins. Lehigh is doubling the number of countries its recruiters will visit, to 30, including promising markets in Southeast Asia and sub-Saharan Africa. The president and the chancellor of the University of Colorado recently visited the Middle East to send the message that they welcome Muslim students, and Mr. Sunnygard is trying to enlist alumni in the region to act as recruiters.

Still, international educators say they worry about what the next year will bring. Arguments on the constitutionality of the travel ban will be heard by the U.S. Supreme Court in October. Not long ago news leaked that the Trump administration may be considering a policy that would require international students to reapply annually to stay in the country.

Aimee Thostenson, director of international-student recruitment at the University of Minnesota-Twin Cities, said turnout at college fairs her recruiters had attended in the Middle East were down markedly. In Latin America, she’s gotten pointed questions from students and parents who have watched sparring between the Trump administration and the Mexican government about the president’s pledge to build a border wall.

“We think of Mexico as our cousin,” they tell Ms. Thostenson, “and we see how well our cousin is being treated. How well will we be treated in the United States?”

Nonetheless, Ms. Thostenson, whose institution’s international enrollments held steady this year, said she remained “cautiously optimistic” about international-student trends. She plans to reach out to prospective students to reassure them that they are wanted on the campus.

Despite some anxious moments, Mr. Sunnygard said he, too, is focused on the year ahead. “It just means we have to work twice as hard,” he said of the current climate, “and we’re good with that.”

Dan Bauman contributed to this article.

Karin Fischer writes about international education, colleges and the economy, and other issues. She’s on Twitter @karinfischer, and her email address is karin.fischer@chronicle.com.