Like much of America, higher education is consumed with uncertainty over Tuesday’s presidential election.
But some things are already clear: Officials across the sector expect new regulation, especially if Donald Trump, the Republican candidate, is elected. The former president has been plain about his intent to wield the power of the executive branch in unprecedented ways to reshape higher education. The Democratic candidate, Kamala Harris, has been far less combative toward many colleges, but an administration led by the vice president would still likely bring new accountability measures that could affect smaller pockets of the sector, like for-profit colleges.
But what we know pales in comparison to what we don’t: Polls show a tight contest, and vote counting could last days or weeks. There’s also the control of Congress to think about, and not just in terms of legislation. If Republicans keep their hold on the House of Representatives, will university after university send presidents to face pointed questions about antisemitism and other white-hot political issues? And then there are the state races, where funding, governance, and other issues rest upon who controls the governor’s mansion and sits in the legislature.
“There’s certainly a lot of anxiety around the uncertainty,” said Lynn Pasquerella, president of the American Association of Colleges and Universities.
The uncertainty has many in higher ed tight-lipped about what they expect, and especially worried about political backlash that seems certain if Trump prevails. Colleges foresee a much more activist administration with the Department of Justice as one hammer. And the pressure could come fast. In Trump’s first go-around, his will was stymied by close advisers and the webs of federal bureaucracy. That’s not expected to be the case if Trump wins a second term.
The strength of democracy is contingent on the strength of higher education. Higher education is truly on the ballot.
Among the areas in the crosshairs: A roll-back of current Title IX regulations, more investigations into campus antisemitism, and scrutiny of diversity, equity, and inclusion efforts. Aggressive action elsewhere could carry severe consequences for colleges. Promised mass deportations would undoubtedly affect international students, who enroll in large numbers in graduate programs at research universities. Also high on the list of changes is federal legislation or executive regulation dealing with transgender students’ participation in athletics. Swing states have been bombarded with political ads from Trump’s campaign and backers attacking Harris and like-minded politicians as forcing educational institutions to let grown men play in women’s sports.
“Clearly, if Trump wins, all the Biden regulations are out the window,” said Scott Schneider, a higher-education lawyer.
Those monitoring the possible outcomes of a Trump win say they expect a more activist Department of Justice, which doesn’t need any recommendation or request from the Department of Education to take action against colleges. At stake will be federal funding, Trump and his allies have said. That could include student loans and research funding, major parts of colleges’ budgets.
The conservative Project 2025, which Trump has disavowed but is still widely viewed as a policy guidebook for his administration, calls for eliminating the Department of Education. The Justice Department has its own civil-rights office and investigations of colleges could be transferred there if the Education Department is dismantled, many believe.
The power to steer the direction of campuses could come from federal officials forcing accrediting agencies to adopt new standards that would force member colleges to adopt criteria approved by conservatives.
“When I return to the White House,” Trump said last year, “I will fire the radical left accreditors that have allowed our colleges to become dominated by Marxist maniacs and lunatics. We will then accept applications for new accreditors, who will impose real standards on colleges once again and once and for all.”
The radical promises have alarmed many across higher education. Trump and his allies are “trying to dismantle higher education as it is and replace it with their own ideology,” Pasquerella said. “The strength of democracy is contingent on the strength of higher education. Higher education is truly on the ballot.”
The whipsawing from one political party to another has put a premium on good governance, said Framroze (Fram) M. Virjee, president and chief executive of the Association of Governing Boards of Universities and Colleges. “The board’s job is not to be surprised. There was a vacuum of understanding about what President Trump would do when he was elected in 2016. That’s not the case now.”
If Harris wins the presidency, experts forecast a broad continuation of the Biden administration’s policies: student-loan forgiveness, a continuation of the gainful-employment rule and current Title IX regulations, as well as more programs focused on college access. Her own history fighting for-profit colleges may portend more regulation targeting that sector.
What any of this means for any one campus or slice of higher ed remains to be seen — although some leaders have their hopes. David A. Hoag, head of the Council for Christian Colleges & Universities, said his member institutions have a simple wish: “Whether it’s a Trump or Harris administration, our hope is we still have a way to practice our faith on our campuses.”
The key for all campuses is what happens after policies are put in place, he added. “Both parties are going to be regulating; it’s how do we navigate those regulations.”
Facing another new presidency, college leaders are left to marvel at just how politically charged their sector has become — which threatens institutional autonomy.
That autonomy “is not a liberal or a conservative issue,” Virjee said, pointing to meddling in Florida and DEI programs at campuses nationwide as evidence of politics reaching into the classroom. What works best, he said, is for higher-education institutions to be independent.
