Skip to content
ADVERTISEMENT
Sign In
  • Sections
    • News
    • Advice
    • The Review
  • Topics
    • Data
    • Diversity, Equity, & Inclusion
    • Finance & Operations
    • International
    • Leadership & Governance
    • Teaching & Learning
    • Scholarship & Research
    • Student Success
    • Technology
    • Transitions
    • The Workplace
  • Magazine
    • Current Issue
    • Special Issues
    • Podcast: College Matters from The Chronicle
  • Newsletters
  • Virtual Events
  • Ask Chron
  • Store
    • Featured Products
    • Reports
    • Data
    • Collections
    • Back Issues
  • Jobs
    • Find a Job
    • Post a Job
    • Professional Development
    • Career Resources
    • Virtual Career Fair
  • More
  • Sections
    • News
    • Advice
    • The Review
  • Topics
    • Data
    • Diversity, Equity, & Inclusion
    • Finance & Operations
    • International
    • Leadership & Governance
    • Teaching & Learning
    • Scholarship & Research
    • Student Success
    • Technology
    • Transitions
    • The Workplace
  • Magazine
    • Current Issue
    • Special Issues
    • Podcast: College Matters from The Chronicle
  • Newsletters
  • Virtual Events
  • Ask Chron
  • Store
    • Featured Products
    • Reports
    • Data
    • Collections
    • Back Issues
  • Jobs
    • Find a Job
    • Post a Job
    • Professional Development
    • Career Resources
    • Virtual Career Fair
    Upcoming Events:
    An AI-Driven Work Force
    University Transformation
Sign In
Zemsky Haysom Full Bleed Crop
Harry Haysom for The Chronicle

Permanent Budget Cuts Are Coming

The outlook for higher education was dim even before the pandemic.

The Review
By Robert Kelchen October 15, 2020

The last eight months represent perhaps the most painful period in the history of American higher education. Colleges and universities employed 337,000 fewer people in August compared to February, with adjuncts and staff members working in housing and dining taking the biggest hit. Full-time faculty and staff members in other positions have borne less of the brunt of the pandemic and ensuing recession to this point, even though many of us across the country (myself included) have taken cuts to salary and benefits while being expected to do more work.

To continue reading for FREE, please sign in.

Sign In

Or subscribe now to read with unlimited access for as low as $10/month.

Don’t have an account? Sign up now.

A free account provides you access to a limited number of free articles each month, plus newsletters, job postings, salary data, and exclusive store discounts.

Sign Up

The last eight months represent perhaps the most painful period in the history of American higher education. Colleges and universities employed 337,000 fewer people in August compared to February, with adjuncts and staff members working in housing and dining taking the biggest hit. Full-time faculty and staff members in other positions have borne less of the brunt of the pandemic and ensuing recession to this point, even though many of us across the country (myself included) have taken cuts to salary and benefits while being expected to do more work.

So far, most of the layoffs in higher education have been viewed as temporary in nature; as soon as students can safely return to campus, the positions will return. But there are growing signs that colleges will make permanent cuts to their entire work force. Two recent examples are the University of Akron, which recently laid off 97 unionized faculty members after invoking a force majeure clause in its collective-bargaining agreement, and Ithaca College, which is planning to lay off nearly one-fourth of its faculty members.

The pandemic has placed college budgets under incredible stress, and these stresses will continue for several years barring a large federal bailout package for states and colleges. As a result, the cuts seen at Akron and Ithaca are likely only the beginning for higher education. The truth is that the future was already looking grim for colleges because of a pending enrollment cliff, and the pandemic has just made things worse.

Nathan D. Grawe, an economics professor at Carleton College, brought the coming enrollment crisis to the attention of college leaders through his book Demographics and the Demand for Higher Education (Johns Hopkins University Press, 2018), in which he highlights a “birth dearth.” Beginning in 2026, the number of high-school graduates nationwide is expected to begin a long decline. This decline has been underway for many years in the Northeast and Midwest, which makes recruiting for colleges like Akron and Ithaca even more difficult.

Colleges facing a decline in their core-market demographic have a couple of options to consider before resorting to cuts, but these options have been constrained by the effects of the pandemic.

The first is to go beyond the traditional market of 18- to 22-year-old undergraduates. While recent high-school graduates attending college full time are no longer the typical college student in American higher education, older adult students are less likely to live on campus or be able to pay full sticker price to attend. Because of the expected lingering economic impact of the pandemic, even fewer potential students are going to be willing or able to pay full price. For colleges that rely on housing dollars and tout the residential-college experience, voluntarily switching to evening, weekend, and online classes is a difficult sell. It’s also a hard sell to board members, who are resistant to changing a model they remember fondly as students themselves decades ago.

The second option is to create new programs at both the undergraduate and graduate levels in an effort to increase enrollment. This has probably been the most common response by colleges, and this model worked well to stabilize institutional finances during the Great Recession. It is also a politically popular choice, as growing the faculty ranks is a good way to get faculty support.

Colleges are going to be risk averse for years to come.

But even though graduate enrollment looks to be much stronger than undergraduate enrollment this fall, the pandemic has changed the extent to which colleges are willing to take on financial risk by starting new programs. Many colleges were caught in a difficult financial position in the spring when they had to quickly refund millions of dollars in housing and dining payments while taking on additional pandemic-related expenses. Colleges are going to be risk averse for years to come, making it difficult to justify the upfront costs of starting new programs with uncertain returns.

So the only option left is the one that Akron and Ithaca are pursuing: permanent budget cuts while seeking maximum financial flexibility. Ithaca is notably seeking to eliminate programs with low enrollment, which allows it to fire tenured faculty members. Board members and legislators are increasingly asking small programs to justify their existence as they seek to reallocate resources toward more popular programs. The institution of tenure is rapidly decaying at all but the wealthiest colleges, as a combination of a buyer’s market for talented faculty members and concerns about long-term financial obligations makes tenure increasingly hard to justify.

I expect many residential colleges serving the traditional market of college students will begin making long-term budget cuts instead of trying to grow their way out of financial problems or changing their missions to appeal to adult learners. As 2026 looms and a full economic recovery may be several years away, the default position of these colleges will be to not fill open positions while using targeted retirement incentives or program eliminations to get the rest of the way to their budget targets. These cost-cutting efforts should prevent widespread closures, but the next several years will still be painful ones for higher education.

We welcome your thoughts and questions about this article. Please email the editors or submit a letter for publication.
Tags
Opinion
Share
  • Twitter
  • LinkedIn
  • Facebook
  • Email
About the Author
Robert Kelchen
Robert Kelchen is a professor and head of the department of educational leadership and policy studies at the University of Tennessee at Knoxville.
ADVERTISEMENT
ADVERTISEMENT

More News

Illustration of a magnifying glass highlighting the phrase "including the requirements set forth in Presidential Executive Order 14168 titled Defending Women From Gender Ideology Extremism and Restoring Biological Truth to the Federal Government."
Policy 'Whiplash'
Research Grants Increasingly Require Compliance With Trump’s Orders. Here’s How Colleges Are Responding.
Photo illustration showing internal email text snippets over a photo of a University of Iowa campus quad
Red-state reticence
Facing Research Cuts, Officials at U. of Iowa Spoke of a ‘Limited Ability to Publicly Fight This’
Photo illustration showing Santa Ono seated, places small in the corner of a dark space
'Unrelentingly Sad'
Santa Ono Wanted a Presidency. He Became a Pariah.
Illustration of a rushing crowd carrying HSI letters
Seeking precedent
Funding for Hispanic-Serving Institutions Is Discriminatory and Unconstitutional, Lawsuit Argues

From The Review

Illustration showing a graduate's hand holding a college diploma and another hand but a vote into a ballot box
The Review | Essay
Civics Education Is Back. It Shouldn’t Belong to Conservatives.
By Timothy Messer-Kruse
Photo-based illustration of a hedges shaped like dollar signs in various degrees of having been over-trimmed by a shadowed Donald Trump figure carrying hedge trimmers.
The Review | Essay
What Will Be Left of Higher Ed in Four Years?
By Brendan Cantwell
Football game between UCLA and Colorado University, at Folsom Field in Boulder, Colo., Sept. 24, 2022.
The Review | Opinion
My University Values Football More Than Education
By Sigman Byrd

Upcoming Events

Plain_Acuity_DurableSkills_VF.png
Why Employers Value ‘Durable’ Skills
Warwick_Leadership_Javi.png
University Transformation: A Global Leadership Perspective
Lead With Insight
  • Explore Content
    • Latest News
    • Newsletters
    • Letters
    • Free Reports and Guides
    • Professional Development
    • Virtual Events
    • Chronicle Store
    • Chronicle Intelligence
    • Jobs in Higher Education
    • Post a Job
  • Know The Chronicle
    • About Us
    • Vision, Mission, Values
    • DEI at The Chronicle
    • Write for Us
    • Work at The Chronicle
    • Our Reporting Process
    • Advertise With Us
    • Brand Studio
    • Accessibility Statement
  • Account and Access
    • Manage Your Account
    • Manage Newsletters
    • Individual Subscriptions
    • Group and Institutional Access
    • Subscription & Account FAQ
  • Get Support
    • Contact Us
    • Reprints & Permissions
    • User Agreement
    • Terms and Conditions
    • Privacy Policy
    • California Privacy Policy
    • Do Not Sell My Personal Information
1255 23rd Street, N.W. Washington, D.C. 20037
© 2025 The Chronicle of Higher Education
The Chronicle of Higher Education is academe’s most trusted resource for independent journalism, career development, and forward-looking intelligence. Our readers lead, teach, learn, and innovate with insights from The Chronicle.
Follow Us
  • twitter
  • instagram
  • youtube
  • facebook
  • linkedin