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How Enrollment Changed in States That Banned Race-Conscious Admissions

By  Jacquelyn Elias and 
Nick Perez
June 22, 2023

After hearing arguments last fall in two cases that challenge race-conscious admissions, the Supreme Court is expected to issue a ruling in a matter of days that could result in a national ban of the practice.

To glimpse the potential impact of such a ruling, The Chronicle looked at how underrepresented-minority enrollment has shifted in the 10 states that have outlawed race-conscious admissions. The Chronicle’s analysis considers enrollment at 23 selective public institutions in states with bans on race-conscious admissions.

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Where Race-Conscious Admissions Has Been Banned

Ten states have prohibited the use of race-conscious admissions and related forms of affirmative action since the 1990s. Hover your cursor over each of those states for key population and enrollment statistics.

After hearing arguments last fall in two cases that challenge race-conscious admissions at colleges, the Supreme Court is expected to issue a ruling in a matter of days that could result in a national ban of the practice.

To glimpse the potential impact of such a ruling, The Chronicle looked at how underrepresented-minority enrollment has shifted in the 10 states that have outlawed race-conscious admissions. The Chronicle’s analysis considers enrollment at 23 selective public institutions in states with such bans.

While those state laws apply only to public institutions, the two pending cases could result in bans at private colleges as well.

How Enrollment Changed in States With Race-Conscious Admissions Bans

Five states saw a growing gap between their underrepresented-minority population and in-state underrepresented-minority enrollment at selective institutions. In three states, the gap shrank, and at two the gap stayed the same.

Enrollment by race
Underrepresented minorities
  • Underrepresented minorities
  • American Indian or Alaska Native
  • Asian or Pacific Islander
  • Black
  • Hispanic
  • Two or More
  • White
Enrollment by student type
All students
  • All students
  • First-year students
  • Full-time students

State's college-age population

Enrollment at selective, four-year institutions in each state

See all
Note: The "Ban began" labels indicate the years that the policies were put in place, but they may not have affected the admissions cycle of that year. Starting in 2010, the population data includes the two or more category and comes from the CDC's Single-Race Population Estimates. Prior, these figures are from the CDC's Bridged-Race Estimates.

Not Keeping Pace

In states that have banned race-conscious admissions, the vast majority of flagships did not see their underrepresented-minority enrollment increase at the same rate as their state’s college-age population.

Flagship university Year of state's ban Underrepresented-minority enrollment change from ban to 2021 Underrepresented-minority population change from ban to 2021
University of Arizona 2010 2.2%
5.0%
University of California at Berkeley 1996 1.7%
7.4%
University of Florida 1999 5.4%
8.8%
University of Idaho 2020 -0.4%
0.2%
University of Michigan at Ann Arbor 2006 1.1%
1.5%
University of Nebraska at Lincoln 2008 5.0%
4.7%
University of New Hampshire 2012 -0.9%
1.8%
University of Oklahoma at Norman 2012 2.7%
3.5%
University of Texas at Austin 1996 - 2003 1.7%
2.8%
University of Washington 1998 5.5%
8.9%
Note: Enrollment represents first-year, first-time degree-seeking undergraduates.

What to Know About Race-Conscious Admissions

race-conscious-admissions-new-promo-square.jpg
In two closely watched cases, the U.S. Supreme Court has ruled unconstitutional the consideration of race in admissions. Here’s a primer.

Methodology

The state population estimates from 1994 to 2009 of 18-to-24-year-olds by race are from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention’s Bridged-Race Population Estimates. From 2010 to 2021, the population estimates are from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention’s Single-Race Population Estimates, which includes the two or more category.

The enrollment figures are from the U.S. Education Department’s Integrated Postsecondary Education Data System. They represent fall-enrollment counts. From 1994 to 2007 the enrollment figures for “Asian or Pacific Islander” do not include Hawaiian Natives. After 2007 that group is represented in this category. After 2008, enrollment-figure totals include the “two or more” category. “Underrepresented minorities” are defined as American Indian and Alaska Native, Black, and Hispanic students.

Percentages were calculated after subtracting from the total those whose race or ethnicity was unknown, and nonresident aliens.

Institutions were defined as selective based on the 2021 Carnegie Undergraduate Profile classifications. Institutions that were classified as “more selective” as well as each state’s flagship institution were included in this analysis.

A version of this article appeared in the September 16, 2022, issue.
Read other items in this What to Know About Race-Conscious Admissions package.
We welcome your thoughts and questions about this article. Please email the editors or submit a letter for publication.
Admissions & EnrollmentDataRace
Jacquelyn Elias
Jacquelyn Elias is a news applications developer for The Chronicle of Higher Education. She builds data visualizations and news applications. Follow her on Twitter @jacquelynrelias, or email her at jacquelyn.elias@chronicle.com.
Nick Perez
Nick Perez is The Chronicle’s news data specialist.
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