Economic storms historically have prompted more adults to seek shelter in the classroom. But this time around, two-year colleges and private for-profit institutions are especially optimistic about attracting more students — and many of those older students will probably take courses online, according to one of the authors of a recent survey.
The 2008 Sloan Survey of Online Learning, released in November before the extent of the recession was clear, found that while all types of colleges anticipate enrollment bumps because of high unemployment, two-year and private for-profit institutions expect to increase their rolls more than others since they “tend to offer programs that have traditionally been tailored to serve working adults.”
And as the economic forecast has grown increasingly pessimistic, these expectations are more likely to play out, according to I. Elaine Allen, an associate professor at Babson College, one of the report’s authors.
“A lot of people want to increase their skill levels or get that degree they didn’t have,” Ms. Allen told The Chronicle last week. The threat of losing their jobs, she said, “can be as big a motivator as the actuality.”
Ms. Allen also expects the number of students enrolled in online courses, which two-year and private for-profit colleges have embraced, to rise during the recession. Back in November, the Sloan survey asserted that the high cost of gasoline might compel more people to learn from home. Although gas prices have since fallen, Ms. Allen said she still expects the struggling economy to push more students into online courses for other reasons.
“If you don’t have a job, lowering your gas costs is not your primary motivation for going back to school online,” she said. “Time-wise, you have the flexibility of logging online and taking the course whenever you want. We also see that most of the online learners are older, and there are family issues.” With online programs, she said, “you don’t have to leave your house. If you have a family, that’s going to make things much easier for you.”
If the recession does move more adults into cyberclassrooms, it will accelerate a trend that has been happening since the Sloan Consortium began publishing its online-education reports, in 2003. As of 2007 — the most recently analyzed data — more than a fifth of all students enrolled in higher education were taking at least one online course. The survey defined that as courses where “at least 80 percent of the course content is delivered online.”
According to the survey data, two-year colleges and large public universities have been the most enthusiastic about adding Web-based courses and programs to their curricula. But Ms. Allen said public institutions were “not anticipating huge growth anymore online.” Two-year colleges and for-profit institutions, on the other hand, have not yet met their maximum potential in online enrollments, she said.
Both public universities and two-year colleges did agree that online courses were “critical” to their long-term strategies, while baccalaureate institutions generally refrained from ascribing them such dramatic importance. Still, 58 percent of all colleges surveyed agreed that online courses were strategically critical.
That figure has remained roughly consistent over the last four years, leading the authors of the report to conclude that the perceived strategic importance of the Web may have peaked. At the same time, they note that 70 percent of colleges report that competition for the growing pool of students interested in online learning is increasing. “This competition may be leading schools to increase their geographic reach and to concentrate on nondegree, nontraditional students,” the authors wrote.
“For the first time, [schools] are seeing students choose another college for its online program,” said Ms. Allen.
http://chronicle.com Section: Information Technology Volume 55, Issue 19, Page A11
