Rising Threat

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Climate change - SLR FIU Drone Footage

When the water comes, the familiar campus life will come to an end. Classes will be relocated or moved online; students will be forced to abandon the deluged library; campus construction plans will have to be overhauled, if not scrapped.

The impact is almost unimaginable, but it is only a matter of time. That the climate is changing and the seas will continue rising are no longer in question. The uncertainty now is how much and how soon.

For many colleges and universities on America’s coasts, the threat is no longer theoretical. Sea-level rise — along with increased stormwater from altered weather patterns and the possibility of more-frequent, more intense hurricanes — is already a concern.

Colleges Line America’s Coasts

Here’s how four colleges, urban and rural, from Virginia to California, are struggling to prepare for the future. Several face difficult circumstances because of local politics as well as their locations. And although the threats are clear, the cost of preparation often discourages action or puts off efforts to build in resiliency, as immediate problems are dealt with.

These colleges have sought to build better research and community partnerships, improve facilities, and develop smart disaster plans. But each one acknowledges that more — much more — needs to be done.

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Climate Change ODU

Old Dominion U.

To survive a future of more flooding, community is key

For Old Dominion University, in Norfolk, Va., combating floods is nothing new. The public institution has worked for decades to ward off water from its 251-acre campus. But the continuing rise in sea level threatens to exacerbate the problem for the campus and its community. “I don’t have any choice but for it to be top of mind,” says Old Dominion’s president, John R. Broderick. “How does this play into the day-to-day life of our students, our faculty, and staff?”

The region is second only to coastal Louisiana when it comes to the peril of a rising sea, and chronic flooding worsens by the year. The region’s plight is complicated further by land subsidence, which, though unrelated to climate change, has lowered the ground elevation by 3.3 millimeters a year over the past century, allowing more floodwaters. Currently, “nuisance” flooding — when waters at high tide cause inconveniences like flooded roadways — is a regular occurrence. As recently as November, a King Tide brought floodwaters on a calm, sunny day, to an area that included parts of Old Dominion’s campus.

By 2050, in Norfolk, with even a moderate rise in sea level, the probability of at least one flood a year six feet above the current high-tide level will increase sevenfold. Such a flood would put almost 13,000 homes below water and consume more than five square miles of land.

Hemmed in by the Lafayette and Elizabeth Rivers, which define Norfolk’s shoreline, Old Dominion is in a precarious spot. To plan for the future, the university has brought together local government, businesses, and the U.S. Navy (which operates the world’s largest naval base, in the city) to share research and resiliency strategies. Research collaborations have helped direct federal funds to help the community prepare for what’s likely to come. And consulting with civil engineers who are working on projects throughout the region means the university can build smarter within its own footprint.

A six-foot rise in water level, simulated here, would drench parts of Old Dominion U. (shown in color) and the surrounding community. Sea level in the Norfolk, Va., area is expected to rise between a foot and a half and four feet by 2050, resulting in a 3- to 67-percent chance of a flood of that magnitude.

When it comes to new construction, says Rusty Waterfield, associate vice president for university services, the university already builds several feet above FEMA’s 100-year-flood estimates. During the design process, the college considers current predictions and realities, seeking a balance between building costs and risks. “There’s always that benefit/risk analysis to determine if we go yet higher again,” he says.

For the university’s older buildings, some of which were constructed over a half-century ago, weighing risks and costs is more difficult. Flooding wasn’t taken into consideration back then, and Michael Brady, director of facilities management, says resiliency measures like relocating mechanical systems, such as heating and electricity, in those buildings above flood grade would be prohibitively expensive.

“We just don’t have the funds to do that,” he says, adding that sometimes it makes more sense for the university to shift funds to a different or new building on campus than to make an old building more resilient.

Even as Old Dominion takes steps to secure its campus and community, the pace of such work needs to pick up. As sea-rise predictions continue, and extreme weather events grow more frequent, Mr. Broderick says Old Dominion must act more quickly to understand the hazards to come while still functioning on a day-to-day basis.

“How do we get our arms around what these challenges are,” he asks, “but yet recognize we have to operate an institution that, by and large, is open 360 days a year?”

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Nicholls State U.

Near the country’s most endangered coast, encroaching waters are an immediate concern

The coastal plains of Louisiana are considered the most at-risk region in the United States to the threat of sea-level rise. By 2020, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration estimates the tide will increase between a foot and just over a foot and a half, sufficient to inundate some communities and expose others to increased threats from storm surge and flooding. In the longer term, prospects are even more dire: the sea swallowing communities and vast swaths of the Louisiana coast.

At Nicholls State University, in Thibodaux, Gary LaFleur Jr., an associate professor of biological sciences, says sea-level rise is something the university’s administration is worried about every day. Not only is the campus and the surrounding community at risk, but the reality is both tangible and personal. “We have students with family members and students themselves that are living really close to the coast,” he says.

Some students, as residents of Isle de Jean Charles, just 40 miles away, have already been affected, Mr. LaFleur notes. Their community is the first in the United States to receive federal dollars to relocate because of global warming .

Nicholls’s campus, along with Thibodaux, sits on a modest ridge, placing it about 10 feet above sea level and rendering it somewhat safer than the low-lying marshes around it. The campus can seem far from the sea — it’s about an hour’s drive to the Gulf of Mexico — and the placid Bayou Lafourche, on the campus’s northern border, is mostly hidden by a treeline and a road.

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Conservative estimates are that by 2050, the Thibodaux, La., area will face a 7-percent chance each year of experiencing a flood of at least six feet above the current high-tide level. Nicholls State U.'s elevated location would help protect the college (in color), but surrounding communities would be inundated.

But Mr. LaFleur says state projection maps, dubbed the “red maps” because of the red shading they use to denote inundated land, are increasingly worrisome for the university. “It’s not as if we see on these maps that this university disappears, but we see the water creeping closer and closer,” he says. And, of course, Louisiana is no stranger to hurricanes and the storm surges they produce.

The university knows it has to be prepared for disaster. Despite budget cutbacks in the University of Louisiana system that have left Nicholls short tens of millions of dollars in deferred-maintenance costs, Mr. LaFleur says, when possible, the university has taken measures like installing gas stoves in the dining halls so meals can be prepared without electricity.

Students and faculty members also participate in research initiatives to help prepare the state for higher seas. Recently a partnership between the state and several colleges, including Nicholls, planted thousands of mangrove trees along the coast to increase its resilience to changing tides.

Beyond research programs and improvements in the university’s emergency preparedness, Mr. LaFleur says, there are other financial priorities. The university hopes to survive not just for students and faculty members, but also for the greater community in the event of a hurricane or longer-term coastal evacuation.

“Right now,” he says, “that’s probably the bigger preparation — that we would be able to support the people that are 30 miles south of us by being something like a safe haven.”

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Florida International U.

As seas rise, hurricanes and politics shape preparations

At Florida International University, in Miami, planning for the long-term threat of sea-level rise is usurped by the immediate risk of storm surge. Robert Griffith, FIU’s director of facilities planning, says he has to plan for a reality in which 10 feet of water could arrive one day and recede the next.

For the campus on Biscayne Bay, Mr. Griffith says, such a scenario would be catastrophic. In September, it almost became a reality as Hurricane Irma threatened to make landfall near Miami. The storm changed course, but downed trees were strewn on the campus, and student housing sustained water damage. Classes were canceled for days.

The university’s low-lying location will be increasingly vulnerable to both hurricanes and sea-level rise in the years ahead. Even conservative projections indicate that the Miami area could see six inches of sea rise by 2020, and an additional six inches by 2050.

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At current high-tide levels, a Category 3 Hurricane in the Miami area could push six feet of storm surge onto Florida International U.'s Biscayne Bay campus, resulting in widespread flooding, as seen here. By 2050, the region could see over three feet of sea rise, causing minor flooding on campus and increasing the impact of storm surge.

One thing is clear: Southern Florida is already feeling the effects of an encroaching sea, as flooding becomes more severe and more frequent. Miami recently put hundreds of millions of dollars into flood mitigation. Recent reports have highlighted the vulnerability of the Miami region, because of its large population and expensively built environment, along with the unprecedented rate at which the water level there is rising.

As a public college in a state whose governor has denied that climate change is man-made and now avoids expressing an opinion, navigating the political waters to fund campus projects can be difficult. Storm-caused flooding is more tangible to the public and lawmakers, Mr. Griffith says, and so it’s possible to get financial resources from the state to make the campus more resilient, like elevating buildings above code or placing crucial systems on upper floors.

“It’s much more difficult to get a building built two feet higher due to sea-level rise than it is to say, ‘Hey, we’re anticipating storms and flooding,’” Mr. Griffith says. He adds that being prepared for hurricanes means that the campus is also more prepared for higher seas.

“The good thing about sea-level rise, though, unlike hurricanes, is we’re much more aware of it these days,” he says.“We’re getting to a point where we can better predict and plan.”

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Point Loma Nazarene U.

The impact of a changing climate can be deceptive

From a scenic vantage point on the Southern California coastline, Point Loma Nazarene University can seem immune to the threat of rising seas. Most of its buildings are about 300 feet above sea level and are separated from the ocean by Sunset Cliffs Natural Park, a strip of undeveloped land that ends abruptly in sheer cliffs that give way to the Pacific.

But in this location along the Point Loma peninsula, west of San Diego, looks are deceiving. Erosion has been wearing away the coastline near the campus and cleaving the bluffs back. Though coastal erosion is normal, climate change will intensify the forces at work on Sunset Cliffs. Sea level in the San Diego area is predicted to rise in coming years, which will increase the cliffs’ exposure to the battering waves. And, as rainfall patterns change, with storms less frequent but more severe, the bluffs will feel the effects of Mother Nature from above as well.

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Erosion scenariosJuxtaposeJS

By 2050, sea level in the San Diego area is predicted to increase by 0.9 to 3 feet, intensifying coastal erosion. Modeling shows the eventual cliff edge near Point Loma Nazarene U. for sea-rise scenarios of slow ( yellow ), medium ( orange ), and extreme ( red ) rates.

For years, the university’s buildings and parking lots themselves have been contributing to erosion by exacerbating storm runoff. The university began working with nearby residents and the city in the early 1990s to address the issue. In 2013, for example, a renovation of Young Hall, a four-story dormitory close to the coast, employed a bioswale system — landscaping to keep runoff water from carrying away soil — that cleans and reduces the velocity of water exiting the campus.

While the improvements, which came with a $300,000 price tag, did help to reduce stormwater erosion, says Joe Watkins, executive vice president, other facilities have yet to be updated. For now, he says, the university tries to include improvements in regard to runoff — along with other climate-related issues — when renovating buildings. “Ideally, you’d love to be able to go and do it all at once,” he says. “But when you have a 92-acre campus on a hillside, you simply can’t afford to do that at any one time.”

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A sea cave along Sunset Cliffs Blvd. has grown causing the ground above to shift above it. City officials have closed off the area and are taking a wait and see approach to the situation.

Coastal erosion will increase with rising seas. In Sunset Cliffs Natural Park, part of which borders Point Loma Nazarene University, a sea cave grew in size in early 2016, causing the ground to shift.

K.C. Alfred, San Diego Union-Tribune, ZUMA Wire

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San Diego California News - February 25, 2016

Within a month, the cliff collapsed into the sea.

Peggy Peattie, San Diego Union-Tribune, ZUMA Wire

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A sea cave along Sunset Cliffs Blvd. has grown causing the ground above to shift above it. City officials have closed off the area and are taking a wait and see approach to the situation.

Coastal erosion will increase with rising seas. In Sunset Cliffs Natural Park, part of which borders Point Loma Nazarene University, a sea cave grew in size in early 2016, causing the ground to shift.

K.C. Alfred, San Diego Union-Tribune, ZUMA Wire

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Point Loma Nazarene is one of the few Christian institutions participating in the Carbon Commitment, which tries to accelerate work to curb climate change. “We actually find that our donors appreciate those efforts,” Mr. Watkins says, “and we’ve actually had some donors give to projects like thermal generators,” a low-emissions alternative for energy production.

The university tries to take actions that model a sense of responsibility to the environment. “While we own this land,” says Mr. Watkins, “we really don’t think of ourselves as owners as much as we do as stewards.”