India has been the engine of post-pandemic growth in international enrollments at American colleges, but the number of visas issued to Indian students plunged by a third this fall, according to a Chronicle analysis of U.S. Department of State data.
About 59,000 student, or F-1, visas were awarded by American consulates in India during the critical months of May to August, compared with nearly 89,000 during the same period in 2023. Worldwide, student-visa issuances for this academic year fell by 12.5 percent, with the bulk of the decline driven by India.
The published data reflect only visa issuances and do not include initial application numbers. However, American colleges, international-recruitment companies, and education advisers in India said that while interest in studying in the United States among young Indians has moderated since its post-Covid explosion, much of this year’s decline in new visas appears to be the result of a substantial uptick in denials.
Many of these sources asked not to be named because they are trying to work with the State Department and U.S. Embassy in India to resolve the current situation, and they depend on their approval for future visas. “Flabbergasted” is how one characterized the sudden reversal in Indian student visas.
The State Department declined to comment on student-visa issuance or denial rates, saying that “final visa data and analysis” for the current academic year was “not yet available.” Instead, a spokesperson referred The Chronicle to data for the 2023 fiscal year, which ended in September 2023, calling it “the most holistic information we can offer at this stage.”
The drop in new students could spell trouble for many American colleges, which have relied on India to buoy both international and graduate-school enrollments. Foreign students — particularly from India, which sends three-quarters of its students at the graduate level — have sustained graduate programs in the United States as American interest has waned. Their presence has been especially important for revenue-generating master’s-degree programs in business, computer science, and engineering.
Last year, India overtook longtime leader China as the top source of international students in the United States. But between May and August, more F-1 visas were issued in China than in India, although the number there also decreased — dropping 12 percent from the summer of 2023, when 70,000 Chinese student visas were awarded.
A decline in new Chinese enrollments at American colleges is not altogether surprising. The strained relationship between the two countries, an economic downturn and high youth unemployment in China, and demographic shifts have all been headwinds. Plus, relatively few American admissions officers have returned to China since the pandemic.
The number of visas issued this summer in China is 28 percent lower than during the same period in 2019, the pre-pandemic benchmark.
Even with recent declines, current Indian student-visa issuances are 76 percent higher than pre-pandemic levels.
Because international students typically get a single visa for the duration of their studies and many stay and work for up to three years after graduation, the impact on the total number of Indian F-1 visa holders will likely be blunted. As of May, there were more than 351,000 Indian students in the United States, according to a database maintained by the U.S. Department of Homeland Security.
Caught By Surprise
The magnitude of the summer slump caught admissions officers and enrollment experts off guard. In July and August, consulates in India issued half as many student visas as they had in the same months the prior year.
Colleges said they did not see similar swings in application numbers from India. Some told The Chronicle that applications were flat, while others saw small increases or declines.
The drop in issuances also took many by surprise because of public statements by the American embassy in New Delhi, which in June issued a press release about its commitment to meeting “skyrocketing” desire for student visas. Then, a month ago, it touted its success in meeting demand. “During our student-visa season this summer, we continued to process record numbers,” the September 30 statement said, “and all first-time student applicants were able to obtain an appointment at one of our five consular sections around India.”
The State Department spokesperson told The Chronicle that the phrase “record numbers” in the release referred to all visa issuances in India, not to student visas specifically.
Total nonimmigrant visas — which include those for temporary workers, family members, and tourists — awarded in India between May and August declined by 6.5 percent.
The department cautioned that its monthly visa data, when aggregated, might not provide “accurate issuance totals” for all or part of the current fiscal year. Conclusions about visa trends, the spokesperson said, should be drawn only from its annual reports. The Chronicle, which has reported on real-time visa issuances since 2019, has not found significant discrepancies between the department’s monthly data postings and its annual reports.
The Biden administration has been seen as supportive of international education and policies that favor foreign students, such as guidance it issued urging consular officers to exercise greater discretion in assessing student applicants’ ties to their home country and likelihood of returning after graduation. Failure to prove “nonimmigrant intent” is the primary cause of visa denials, including student visas.
In response to questions, the State Department spokesperson sounded a welcoming note: “We remain committed to facilitating travel for international students, whose contributions to U.S. campuses and communities are essential for fostering cross-cultural connections and strengthening the U.S. economy.”
While there was a short-term surge in Indian student-visa denials before the pandemic, they have largely mirrored the worldwide rates, which were 36 percent in 2023. This summer, however, colleges and recruiters report some American consulates in India have rejected half or more of those who applied — more in keeping with sky-high F-1 denial rates in sub-Saharan Africa.
Anecdotally, the denials seem to be affecting lesser-known colleges more than name-brand institutions, based on Chronicle queries. Earlier this month, Saint Louis University announced it had laid off employees and instituted a hiring freeze because of a $20-million shortfall caused by a “significant drop” in international students. The university did not respond to requests for comment.
Several research universities contacted by The Chronicle said new enrollments from India had held steady.
Without official acknowledgment by the State Department, colleges are left to speculate about the cause of recent declines. Some said Indian students may be putting off overseas study this year because of uncertainty about the American job market and the upcoming presidential election. (Polling, though, has suggested that international-student decision making may not be as swayed by the result of the election as in recent years.)
Still, “there’s some anxiety in the market, so many people are saying that they’ll wait and see,” said Girish Ballolla, chief executive of Gen Next Education, which works with colleges to expand their international reach and recruitment.
Pent-up demand from the pandemic may also be easing, said Ballolla, who is co-leader of a member-interest group on India for NAFSA: Association of International Educators.
Some colleges said they had pulled back on the number of Indian students they admit. Jonathan D. Weller, an administrator at the University of Cincinnati, said the college had started a master’s program in information technology that particularly attracted Indian students, but it “got too big too quick,” so officials reduced enrollments. “The growth was not sustainable.”
Others suggested that the State Department may be cracking down amid worries about people abusing the student-visa system to come to the United States to work, not study, and catching some legitimate students in the process. Several major destination countries, like Canada and Australia, have recently moved to cap international-student enrollments because of fraud concerns, and American colleges have complained about growth in “visa jumpers” — students who immediately transfer out of college after arriving in the United States.
A spokeswoman for NAFSA said the visa issue is “very much on our radar” and that the group had requested a meeting with State Department officials.
Miriam Feldblum, executive director of the Presidents’ Alliance on Higher Education and Immigration, said she appreciated the State Department’s work to deal with an increasing volume of visa applications, in India and elsewhere. “Yet the increasing rate of denials matters and cannot be explained away,” Feldblum said, adding, “These trends are adversely impacting student lives and campus enrollments.”
Still, there are some bright spots in this summer’s visa data. Vietnam was behind only China and India in visa issuances, seeing an increase of 26 percent. Visas awarded to students in Nepal rose by 76 percent.
While elementary- and secondary-school children from abroad also come to the United States on F-1 visas, nine in 10 student-visa holders are college students, so visa data are largely a reflection of college enrollments.