The Biggest Problem for State Higher-Ed Policy? Federal Higher-Ed Policy

The biggest concern for state higher-education policy in 2018 isn’t the continuing economic volatility, the questions about affordability for students, the disputes about free speech on campuses, or the difficulties in preventing and punishing campus sexual assaults.

Instead, the top issue for states is the uncertainty created by the federal government, according to an annual report from the American Association of State Colleges and Universities.

Policy changes enacted by lawmakers in Washington last year will continue to influence state policy in 2018, the report said, “and new proposals expected to be under consideration in Congress will only add to ambiguity and political division in statehouses.” The annual list was written by Thomas Harnisch, the association’s director of state relations and policy analysis, and Dylan Opalich, the assistant director.

The big question mark for states will be the impact of the recently enacted overhaul of federal taxes, which could also change the amount of revenue that many states collect, the association said. Another recent report, from the National Association of State Budget Officers, lays out some of the complexities and possible outcomes for states as a result of the new tax law.

In addition, Congress is set to consider a major overhaul of the nation’s primary law governing higher education, and colleges have big concerns about President Trump’s decision to end the protected status for people who were brought into the United States illegally as children — the program called Deferred Action for Childhood Arrivals.

The political uncertainty will be compounded by both the congressional midterm elections and state elections in 2018: Thirty-six governors’ seats will be decided this year, along with 82 percent of state legislative seats. The elections could be pivotal as an opportunity for Democrats to take control of at least one chamber in Congress and lessen the historic number of statehouses currently controlled by Republicans.

As if all that weren’t enough for public higher education to worry about, many of the concerns from 2017 remain near the top of the list for states, including sluggish state economies, questions about college affordability, disputes over free speech, and the difficulties of dealing with sexual assault.

Eric Kelderman writes about money and accountability in higher education, including such areas as state policy, accreditation, and legal affairs. You can find him on Twitter @etkeld, or email him at eric.kelderman@chronicle.com.