High retention rates also help to mitigate the effects of economic turmoil on enrollments
Official fall enrollment statistics won’t be available for a few weeks more, but many U.S. colleges and universities already are confirming sharp declines in the numbers of students from Asian countries that over the past year have experienced currency devaluations and economic turmoil.
While campus officials had expected fewer students from Indonesia, Malaysia, South Korea, and Thailand this semester, particularly in their entering classes, they could only guess at the size of the overall decline and how far it might drag down total international enrollment.
But it appears that stepped-up recruiting in other parts of the world and relatively high retention rates for continuing students from the four Asian countries have helped many institutions offset the drop. Officials from those campuses report foreign-student totals at levels close to those of one year ago.
“We really are pleased that we’re down only 60 students,” says Dennis Dunham, vice-president for international programs at Oklahoma City University. The Methodist institution began the year with 1,150 foreign students, compared with 1,210 a year ago. While 500 students from the four troubled Asian countries were enrolled in 1997, this year’s figure is 390, mainly because of a drop in new students -- 40 this fall, down from 135. But Mr. Dunham says the decline was mitigated by the success of increased recruiting in Africa, India, the Middle East, and elsewhere.
Last spring, Wichita State University lost 220 Asian students, and this fall it expects to lose about 100 more. “We had about 800 a year ago, and we’ll have about 500 this fall,” says Peter Zoller, associate vice-president for academic affairs. “But we’ve been doing more recruiting in South America, China, and Eastern Europe,” which he expects will help make up most of the loss. “We had 1,200 foreign students last year, and we hope to be close to that this year, maybe down just 100 or so.”
Intensive-English programs were the first and hardest hit by the drop in Asian students, and the falloff in their enrollment continues:
* At Indiana University at Bloomington, this fall’s enrollment in the language program is 230 students, 200 fewer than a year ago.
* Western Illinois University now has about 50 students in its program, down from 85 last year.
* The University of Pennsylvania’s eight-week program, which runs year-round, has 78 students from Asia in its current class of 190. A year ago at this time, the class of 211 had 145 Asians. “But we’re only down 21 students over all, and we thought we’d be down 20 or 30 more than that,” says Nora Lewis, the program’s marketing coordinator. Enrollment has been increased, she says, by “big groups” from Latin America and some former Soviet republics.
The impact of the drop in Asian students on foreign enrollment in degree programs is more muted, especially at institutions with large international populations.
The three institutions that in recent years have enrolled the most foreign students -- Boston University, New York University, and the University of Southern California -- expect to maintain their overall numbers, even if they have fewer students from some parts of Asia.
“We seem to have a very healthy-sized entering class,” says Gail Szenes, director of the Office for International Students and Scholars at N.Y.U. “Although our numbers are not yet final, they seem to be consistent with last year’s.”
Riaz Khan, associate vice-president for external programs at Boston University, says any change in its foreign enrollment will be negligible. “We do not depend on enrollment from the Far East only,” he says. “We have 138 countries represented here, and we are very actively recruiting students in the Middle East, South America, Europe -- almost everywhere.”
While the University of Southern California, which had 949 students from Indonesia, Malaysia, South Korea, and Thailand last year, expects enrollment from each to be down this fall, “it appears that the decline will be more than offset by an increase in students from Taiwan and India,” says Dixon C. Johnson, executive director of the Office of International Services. He notes that, at the end of orientation week, 925 new foreign students were enrolled, up from 745 a year ago.
Officials at many of the 23 U.S. institutions that last year each enrolled a total of 500 or more students from the four hard-pressed Asian countries report a relatively high number of those students returning. Some also note another encouraging sign -- the return of many students who dropped out last semester for financial reasons. Efforts to provide emergency financial assistance to such students by the institutions themselves, as well as by national organizations involved in international education, are being credited with helping to retain many students who otherwise might have been forced to drop out.
The University of Oklahoma had just over 500 students from the four countries in 1997, and this fall expects to end up with just under 500. “Our numbers have pretty much held,” says Linda Larchick, manager of international services at the Center for Student Life.
Indiana University at Bloomington reports an overall increase in enrollment in degree programs from the four troubled nations, despite a drop in the number of new students. The total foreign enrollment of 2,248 is 98 students more than last year, and the 585 from the four Asian countries represents an increase of seven.
“I had forecast a 10-per-cent decline in our foreign-student enrollment for this semester,” says Kenneth A. Rogers, director of the Office of International Services. “I don’t mind being wrong. What especially pleases us is that the number of continuing and returning students is better than expected.”
Before their economies weakened, Indonesia, Malaysia, South Korea, and Thailand together had accounted for a steadily growing proportion of all foreign students in the United States. The Institute of International Education has reported that, of the 457,984 foreign students enrolled at U.S. institutions in 1996-97, the most recent year for which such statistics are available, 77,599 of them -- just about 17 per cent -- came from those four countries.
But starting with the devaluation of the Thai baht in the summer of 1997, all four countries have seen the relative value of their currencies decline significantly as a result of financial problems at home and economic turmoil in the region.
As a result, say officials at the Washington embassies of the four countries, their governments have been forced to reduce support for overseas study.
The most extreme example is Malaysia. Of the 14,527 Malaysians on U.S. campuses last year, 3,000 received funds from their government. This year, “there are no Malaysian students here under government sponsorship,” says Abu Bachik, director of the Malaysian Students’ Department at the embassy. After a moment’s pause, he offers a clarification. “Well, maybe there are some. But fewer than 10.”
For domestic political reasons as well as financial ones, Malaysia is also encouraging students here with private support to finish their studies as quickly as possible and return home. In addition, the government in recent weeks has imposed currency controls that tightly restrict how much Malaysian ringgit can be converted into dollars. Educators in this country see that as a serious obstacle to privately sponsored students seeking to enroll at U.S. institutions.
While the other three countries have been forced to scale back their sponsorship of overseas students, their representatives stress that such programs are continuing.
“The government has no policy to stop sending students overseas, because if we do, our human-resource-development situation will be very bad,” says Yahya Muhaimin, education and cultural attache at the Indonesian embassy. In spite of the country’s dire economic situation, “we are still sending some students abroad and encouraging others to do so,” he adds.
Mr. Muhaimin says his government has been encouraging Indonesian students in the United States to take advantage of financial-aid opportunities on their campuses as well as national emergency-assistance programs, such as those being administered by the Institute of International Education and NAFSA: Association of International Educators. “But I know the number of privately sponsored students will decrease substantially this year,” he says.
Thailand continues to support its Royal Thai Scholars, although it has reduced stipends and benefits and limited new awards. “We have some new students coming in, but a small number compared to last year, maybe 100 instead of 400,” says Noppadon Moapichai of the embassy’s Office of Educational Affairs. “Right now the priority is to maintain students who are already here,” a total of about 2,000.
Chung Fuk-koo, an education counselor at the South Korean Embassy, says students from his country who were enrolled at U.S. institutions when the financial crisis hit “are finding ways to stay to complete their degrees. But for new students, it’s difficult.”
Even though money is tight, he says his government “will continue sending students abroad.”
Allan Goodman, president of the Institute of International Education, finds such words reassuring.
“The reality is that these governments have less money to spend,” he says. “But what I find encouraging is the high level of rhetorical support for education that I have been hearing.
“The Asian crisis would be a true disaster if they didn’t find some way to keep those students here in school. The commitment of the political leadership to helping continuing students finish their degrees shows that they recognize the strong link between educating students now and growing their economies later.”
Noting that the majority of foreign students -- about two-thirds -- rely on family resources or other private funds to pay for their education in this country, Mr. Goodman predicts that, in the future, those students, their parents, and other private sponsors are going to be much more price-sensitive.
“That means we might see many more students from these affected countries going to very good U.S. schools whose prices are 25 per cent less than those of the top-tier institutions,” he says.
Some lower-priced institutions that enroll large numbers of foreign students are counting on what one official calls “the value factor” to keep their programs attractive to cost-conscious students.
“At $4,000 a year for tuition, we are extremely affordable,” says Elena Garate-Eskey, dean of international education at Santa Monica College. “And we have the highest transfer rate to Berkeley, U.C.L.A., and U.S.C. of any of California’s 109 community colleges.”
While Santa Monica’s Asian enrollment is down this fall -- including a drop of some 100 South Korean students -- officials expect last year’s overall foreign enrollment of 2,440 to remain the same or go up, thanks to more recruiting in central Europe and South America.
Western Illinois University has lost more than one-third of the 197 students it enrolled last year from the four economically depressed countries, but it is now using its competitive prices and small-town location to lure more students from other regions. “We’ve gotten quite a few from Kenya and Saudi Arabia,” says Julie Rose, director of international student affairs. “We have been attracting more friends of our students, and friends of friends.”
The drop in Asian students has brought home the importance of overseas recruiting in maintaining stable foreign enrollments.
This fall, the University at Missouri at Columbia, which has never recruited overseas, has seen an 11-per-cent drop in its foreign enrollment, to 1,148. The number of students from Japan, Taiwan, and the four troubled Asian countries is down 17 per cent.
“We’re in a six-year decline in foreign enrollment, but, without any recruiting whatsoever, that would have to be anticipated in this competitive market,” says John D. Heyl, director of the university’s International Center. He says Missouri has formed a task force to develop an international-recruitment strategy, one that will rely on the university’s alumni in Asia.
The enrollment picture this fall, he adds, would have looked a lot worse if the university had not acted quickly last winter to assist Asian students in need through a $100,000 grant-and-loan fund.
Asian student leaders say that the emergency financial aid provided by their institutions and other organizations has been critical.
Alfonsa Adityarini, a senior majoring in business at Indiana and a former president of the Indonesian Students’ Society there, says she might not have been able to remain at the university if she had to depend on funds from her parents. “The university has been helping me, allowing me to defer tuition, giving me a loan to buy books, and a partial tuition scholarship,” she says. “I know they have limited funds, but they have been trying everything to help us.”
Prakit Narongtanupon, a Ph.D. candidate in business at Indiana and a past president of the Thai student group, says the university has been very good about coming up with jobs. “A lot of us now work on campus,” he says.
But what Ms. Adityarini, Mr. Narongtanupon, and other Asian student leaders have found is that many of their fellow students either do not know enough about the available opportunities for assistance, or are uncomfortable about coming forward to seek help. So they have formed an advisory council that is helping the Office of International Services at Indiana determine what kind of advice and support students need most. Already the office, at the suggestion of the students, has scheduled a workshop on money management.
“What we want to do,” says Mr. Narongtanupon, “is help the university find ways to reduce the financial burden on Asian students hurt by this crisis.”
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Section: International
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