The number of foreign students coming to the United States this fall may increase over last year, according to colleges contacted by The Chronicle and visa-issuance figures from India and China, the two countries that send the most students to American shores.
Growth appears to be likeliest in undergraduate programs, in which a number of institutions said they expected to see a significant increase in international numbers. The forecast for graduate programs is less clear, with some of the dozen universities contacted by The Chronicle reporting increases and others saying numbers were likely to be flat or decrease slightly.
The U.S. Embassy in Beijing said that for 2008 it was expecting a 30-percent increase over last year in visa issuances for students and exchange visitors. The U.S. Embassy in New Delhi said that student visas were up 4.5 percent for the months from October to June, compared with the same period last year. Together the countries account for 25 percent of the foreign students in the United States.
An increase in international enrollments would support evidence that the declines suffered by institutions in recent years have begun to reverse. Last year the Institute of International Education said in its annual “Open Doors” report that the number of international students enrolled at American colleges and universities rose by 3.2 percent in 2006, which was the first significant increase since 2001.
The less-optimistic graduate numbers seem to support figures from the Council of Graduate Schools, which reported in April that applications from foreign students were up only 3 percent this year, following a 9-percent increase in 2007 and a 12-percent increase in 2006.
At Ohio State University, first-year foreign enrollments in the undergraduate program, which has 1,100 foreign students over all, are expected to increase from 133 to 240, while graduate numbers are expected to hold steady.
The University of Southern California, which has the largest foreign-student enrollments in the country, expects significant increases all around. Administrators there anticipate a 12-percent increase at the undergraduate level, and the number of students who have committed to coming using an online certification site is up 17 percent for the graduate school.
Other universities predict little growth, however. Neither Stanford University nor the State University of New York at Buffalo, for example, expect to see significant changes at the undergraduate level.
John J. Wood, associate vice provost for international education at Buffalo, said foreign students were increasingly applying to many institutions, a pattern that does not necessarily translate into more enrollments.
“This may be indicative of two things,” he said, “the increased competition for international students among institutions around the world and the increasing savvy of international applicants, who now have more choices and are taking advantage of this.”
More Welcoming
Admissions officers cited several possible explanations for enrollment increases, including continuing improvements in the visa process and an increased perception that the United States is welcoming to foreign students.
Janice L. Jacobs, assistant secretary for consular affairs in the U.S. State Department, said the department had worked hard on both issues.
“With our visa processing, we’ve become more efficient,” she said. “We did hit snags after 9/11, but we’ve improved our system, and students get priority in receiving visas.”
Some administrators also said they had heard rumors that the declining value of the dollar was attracting more students from overseas, but others dismissed the idea.
“The dollar has weakened, but not as much against Asian and Latin American currencies as it has against the euro, and Europeans have free education, so it’s still expensive to go to the U.S.,” said John F. Eriksen, associate director of international admission at Bryant University. “I don’t see that as a factor that would shift things very much.”
Overwhelmingly, colleges and universities cited their own efforts as the reason for increases in enrollment.
At Indiana University at Bloomington, which expects a 5-percent increase in undergraduate enrollment and a smaller increase in graduate enrollment, officials have been trying to raise foreign numbers.
“For quite some time, we didn’t do anything,” said Stephen A. Johnson, senior associate director of international admissions. “In the last 18 months, we’ve created a position devoted to international recruitment, and we have gone to 20 different countries and visited 16,000 students.”
Similarly, Northern Arizona University, which is expecting a 30-percent increase in foreign students who accept offers of admission to the undergraduate college, has recently made changes to increase that number. “We’ve implemented a strategic plan for processing visa applications, and have a coordinator in China,” said Mandy Hansen, assistant director of international admissions and recruitment, “and our undergraduate admissions are up from there.”