What Community Colleges Are Doing to Counteract Declining Enrollments

Despite all of the national focus on community colleges, enrollment in two-year institutions has been steadily declining, dropping 16 percent from 2010 to 2015, according to EAB, a research and technology group.

Conventional wisdom would chalk that up to an improving economy, which has people heading to work instead of the classroom.

But EAB says it’s also four-year colleges — not just jobs — that are luring students away. From 1980 to 2002, community colleges had 40 percent to 44 percent of the higher-education enrollment in the United States. Since then, their share has dropped to an all-time low of 37.9 percent as four-year colleges have stepped up their marketing and recruiting efforts.

Carla Hickman, managing director of EAB, explains what’s behind the trend and what community colleges are doing to counteract it. The interview has been edited for length and clarity.

Q. What led you to take a closer look at what might be behind the enrollment decline?

A. Our presidents and institutional leaders were very concerned about declining enrollment, in particular because tuition revenue is a larger share of their budget than it has been in years past. If you go back several years to the height of the Great Recession, where everyone was experiencing record enrollment, it was definitely a belief that, as the economy improved and unemployment declined, fewer people would enroll in community colleges. This countercyclical relationship between enrollments and the economy was normal. But we believed there was something else going on.

Data showed that, even at the height of that enrollment peak, in 2010, community colleges had a lower market share than at any point since the early 1980s. During the Great Recession, in 2008, even though our members were looking at classrooms that were beyond capacity, the market share was still continuing its steady decline.

We wanted to understand whether that trend was reversible and what, beyond the economy and high-school graduation rates, we could attribute that to.

Q. Why do four-year colleges seem to be attracting students who might in the past have gone to a community college?

A. Since 2002, we’ve seen a real increase in the sophistication of marketing, recruiting, and enrollment management among four-year colleges. It’s not the for-profit sector that was increasing its share — that’s a classic competitor for many of our community colleges. It was actually the four-year publics and privates.

Because discount rates are increasing, the price gap between two- and four-year colleges is narrowing. Private colleges have extraordinarily robust career services, experiential and cocurricular learning, internship placements, and smaller class sizes. If you’re a parent or student looking for the opportunity to be job-ready on Day 1, that’s an extremely valuable opportunity.

Q. Isn’t this shift still surprising, given all the focus on community colleges and concerns about affordability?

A. We would have assumed that affordability and the value proposition that community colleges offered a prospective student would have allowed these colleges to grow enrollment. But it’s more than a value conversation. It also has to be tied to career services and a clearer sense of students’ end goals, which for many is still the attainment of a bachelor’s credential.

Community colleges need to speak more not only to the value of affordable degrees but about transfer pathways and the opportunity to have a career with a high wage immediately after graduation.

Q. What are some of the creative approaches community colleges are taking to compete with four-year colleges?

A. We’ve seen community colleges across the country look at new digital-marketing practices, including “geofencing,” which allows them to spend less on mobile advertising by focusing their ads on a particular geographic area. Northwest Iowa Community College had a certified nursing-aide program and wanted to be sure that every dollar they spent on marketing was targeted toward prospects who were likely to convert. They used geofencing to target their mobile apps toward a local hospital, and they built a 60-mile virtual border around it. Only individuals within that radius, and at two local job centers, received those ads. They showed us that, for a $1,200 investment, they were able to yield nearly $9,000 in training revenue.

Another college sends ads only to where a Department of Motor Vehicles is located because it’s a place where adults are on their phone, bored, looking for something to do.

Q. Any other examples?

A. Spokane Falls Community College takes the students who have indicated on their Fafsa form that they’d be interested in that college and writes them a personalized award letter estimating their net cost of attendance. Because the cost of the community college is typically less than the full Pell award, the cost of attendance is essentially negative. They’re able to send those award levels well before most universities have communicated with prospects. For community colleges with fewer resources, this is a way of zeroing in on students they know are interested.

Q. What does all of this reflect about how open-access colleges approach enrollment today?

A. Rather than throw the door open and see who comes in, they’re being more thoughtful about who they’re best positioned to serve. They’re investing in programs and degrees that serve that niche and using increasingly sophisticated and targeted techniques to reach them. By focusing on student success, the community colleges we work with are committed to making sure every student who goes through an open door makes it not only to the first day of class, but to graduation.

Katherine Mangan writes about community colleges, completion efforts, and job training, as well as other topics in daily news. Follow her on Twitter @KatherineMangan, or email her at katherine.mangan@chronicle.com.