The evidence is clear: For the average student, college is an investment that pays off.
But averages conceal variation, and college outcomes vary widely. Variation in postcollege earnings and student debt has also increased over time, according to new research, raising the stakes on students’ college choices.
College is no guarantee. Many students never graduate. Even someone who earns a degree doesn’t always make more money than the typical person with less education. Factor in the ubiquity of student debt, and there’s a chance that things will go badly wrong — especially for those who don’t graduate.
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The evidence is clear: For the average student, college is an investment that pays off.
But averages conceal variation, and college outcomes vary widely. Variation in postcollege earnings and student debt has also increased over time, according to new research, raising the stakes on students’ college choices.
College is no guarantee. Many students never graduate. Even someone who earns a degree doesn’t always make more money than the typical person with less education. Factor in the ubiquity of student debt, and there’s a chance that things will go badly wrong — especially for those who don’t graduate.
Perhaps there was a time when a simple message about going to college was enough, says Eric Johnson, assistant director for policy analysis and communications in the office of scholarships and student aid at the University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill. After all, he says, “failing at college used to not be a catastrophic event.”
In this way, Mr. Johnson says, higher education parallels real estate. Back when a standard home mortgage was the only option, it made some sense to say that real estate was “always a good investment,” he says. Purchasing a house could normally get buyers into only so much trouble when the process was meant to ensure they were able to afford it. But exotic financing options have introduced more risk, and the old advice no longer applies.
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Crafting the right message about going to college, like crafting the right message about buying a home, is tricky. How do you describe an investment in oneself that has clear and important benefits, on average, but can be ruinous in some circumstances?
The message is “not as simple as ‘Go to college,’ it’s not as simple as ‘College for everybody,’” says Nicole Hurd, the founder and chief executive officer of the College Advising Corps, which places recent college graduates in high schools to work as college advisers.
That’s too bad because, “in the policy world, people want simple messages,” says Sandy Baum, author of a new book,Student Debt: Rhetoric and Realities of Higher Education Financing (Palgrave Macmillan, 2016).
A ‘Core Value’
This problem, it turns out, is not unique to higher ed. “In the real world of any kind of messaging, there’s variability in outcomes,” says Joseph Cappella, a professor in the Annenberg School for Communication at the University of Pennsylvania. Experts encourage people to do things that usually carry benefits, but those actions don’t always bring the desired results. Still, he says, that doesn’t mean people shouldn’t do them.
What makes a public message effective, Mr. Cappella says, is connecting it to a “core value.”
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College may not be a core value, he says, but education is, so that’s what a public message should emphasize. Once a message hits on that core value, it can mention the fine print, he says.
Getting such a less-simple message right isn’t easy, but it matters. Many people know someone who went to college and is worse off as a result. Tell them that college is unequivocally a good investment, and you’ll only increase their skepticism. Maybe a more-nuanced message has a better chance of being heard.
In her speech at the Democratic National Convention last month, Hillary Clinton drew a distinction between “college” and other kinds of work-force preparation. “Sure, college is crucial, but a four-year degree should not be the only path to a good job,” she said. “We will help more people learn a skill or practice a trade and make a good living doing it.”
That line might frustrate a higher-education expert. “College” encompasses much more than four-year-degree programs, and is in fact the country’s main system of vocational training. But to everyone else, the word is likely to conjure up a four-year, residential, liberal-arts education.
“I’d like to rebrand the word ‘college,’” Ms. Hurd says. When people believe that college is not for them — or not for everyone — they may be working with a narrow definition of what it includes.
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The Right Option
What college advocates are really trying to get at, Ms. Hurd says, is not “college for all,” but “the right postsecondary option for all.” But that phrase, she acknowledges, doesn’t exactly roll off the tongue.
Perhaps there are other ways to convey it. “The public message that college is worthwhile is still 100 percent accurate. I don’t think there’s anything wrong with that message,” says Judith Scott-Clayton, an associate professor of economics and education at Teachers College of Columbia University, who has studied the variation in college outcomes.
Still, she says, “there are some predatory actors in higher education,” and so would-be students can’t assume that anything called “college” has their best interests at heart.
College is worth it, and relying on public institutions and public sources of funding are a good default strategy.
Some of those bad actors are for-profit institutions, Ms. Scott-Clayton says, and it can be hard to determine whether a college is part of that sector on the basis of its marketing materials. At the same time, she says, “just because an institution is not-for-profit doesn’t guarantee that they’re an awesome institution.”
The simple, safe college-search advice Ms. Scott-Clayton recommends is: “College is worth it, and relying on public institutions and public sources of funding are a good default strategy.”
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That is not to say students shouldn’t go to private colleges, she adds. Such colleges can have better outcomes and might even be more affordable after financial aid. But students should have a good reason for going to one.
‘Match and Fit’
Many people believe that more-expensive colleges are better than less-expensive ones, says Douglas Webber, an assistant professor of economics at Temple University who has also studied the varying payoffs of college degrees. But evidence does not support that belief. So on top of telling people that they should go to college but need to graduate, he might add that “you don’t have to pay a lot for it.”
Those education researchers’ focus on affordable options is no accident. After all, rising prices and widespread borrowing are responsible for some of the worst outcomes facing former students as well as much of the hand-wringing over whether college is worth it.
Little in life is “good or bad for all people under all circumstances,” writes Ms. Baum, a senior fellow at the Urban Institute, in her new book. Take marriage, for example. That’s another institution strongly linked to positive outcomes. “But clearly,” she writes, “we should not advise young people just to get married because marriage makes life better. It matters when you get married, why you get married, and whom you marry.”
The benefits of college, like those of marriage, come down to the specifics. It matters where students go to college, what they study, and whether they graduate.
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Understanding that is “why we spend all of our time with students talking about match and fit,” says Ms. Hurd, of the College Advising Corps.
Finding a college that’s a good match or the right fit is a profoundly personal exercise. A public message can’t possibly tell every student the best path to and through college for her, individually. But maybe it could convey that finding that path is an integral part of seeing her investment pay off.
Beckie Supiano writes about college affordability, the job market for new graduates, and professional schools, among other things. Follow her on Twitter @becksup, or drop her a line at beckie.supiano@chronicle.com.
Beckie Supiano is a senior writer for The Chronicle of Higher Education, where she covers teaching, learning, and the human interactions that shape them. She is also a co-author of The Chronicle’s free, weekly Teaching newsletter that focuses on what works in and around the classroom. Email her at beckie.supiano@chronicle.com.