High-school seniors have only until May 1 to decide where they will go to college. While it is still too soon to tell if widespread predictions that seniors will flock to lower-cost institutions were accurate, two new surveys and conversations with guidance counselors suggest that the economic situation is indeed playing a large role in students’ decisions.
A new studentPOLL survey found that the recession has caused one in six collegebound students to change their college plans. The effects were most pronounced among lower-income students: Twenty-nine percent of students from families with household incomes of $40,000 or less said their college plans had changed, compared with 16 percent of those from middle-income families (between $40,000 and $100,000) and 10 percent of high-income families (more than $100,000).
The survey, conducted by the College Board and the Art & Science Group, a higher-education consulting firm, was based on the responses of a random national sample of high-school seniors who registered for the SAT. A total of 971 students responded to the survey between February 11 and March 3.
As a result of the tough economy, 41 percent of the respondents said they were more seriously considering a public university or college close to home.
A number of high-school counselors say that more of their students applied to public institutions. “Throughout the year, I have seen more high-ability students seriously looking at public universities, rather than ‘I just want this as my backup just in case,’” said Scott R. Anderson, director of college guidance at St. George’s Independent School, in Collierville, Tenn.
Lawrence V. Fisher, director of guidance at East Grand Rapids High School, a public school in Michigan, said that about 35 percent to 38 percent of his students usually go to college out of state. He expects that to drop to about 30 percent to 32 percent this year as families focus on affordability.
Other high schools have long seen most of their students apply to at least one public institution, and many plan on attending one all along. Minnetonka High School, a public school in Minnesota, has always sent many of its students to public institutions, and its college counselor, Phil Trout, doesn’t expect to see a big change.
The Lure of Lower-Cost Options
Students are pursuing other lower-cost alternatives as well. Fifteen percent of survey respondents said they had given much more thought to attending a community college or other two-year institution. Mr. Fisher, in hard-hit Michigan, has seen the proportion of his students choosing community colleges grow for years. Before 2002, no more than 10 percent of seniors enrolled in community colleges, but in the years since, that proportion has grown into the midteens.
About 21 percent of survey respondents said they were thinking much more seriously about living at home and commuting to college. And 28 percent said they were giving much more thought to colleges with reputations for granting large financial-aid awards.
“Cutting across income groups, there’s a clear level of anxiety and fear out there,” said Richard A. Hesel, a principal at the Art & Science Group.
The survey also examined the extent to which concerns about the economy have shaped families’ discussions of college. Sixty-five percent of the seniors said their parents had talked to them about how financial problems might limit the family’s ability to pay for college.
Annette E. Cleary, director of college counseling at Marquette University High School, in Milwaukee, said seniors who have had a parent lose a job are in a particularly tough spot. For a stretch in February and March, she said, “it seemed like every couple of days a student would mention mom or dad losing a job.”
Yet not every family has discussed how cost could limit the student’s options, said Mr. Trout, of Minnetonka High School. “I’ve seen an increase in parents who’ve solicited my help as a counselor to talk about publics,” he said, “because they as a parent haven’t had the heart-to-heart about the private they can’t afford.”
Still, sticker prices loom large in students’ minds. Lower- and middle-income families were particularly sensitive to cost, but 53 percent of all respondents said they had ruled out specific colleges solely because of their cost. Two-thirds of those students said they had done so regardless of what financial-aid packages they might receive.
The focus on sticker price may be a result of how complicated higher education has made applying to and paying for college, Mr. Hesel says: “The complexity of what we’ve created has consequences.”
Half of students surveyed said their families had saved money for college, but only half of those had saved more than $20,000. Ten percent said they had saved between $40,000 and $70,000, and 5 percent said they had saved more than $100,000.
A number of high-school counselors said they had seen more students express interest in applying for outside scholarships or pursuing merit aid at colleges.
Not Giving Up
Despite the tough financial circumstances many families are facing, few students have given up on attending college. Only 4 percent said that the recession had prompted them to more seriously consider working instead of attending college; 78 percent said they had never considered that option.
A survey conducted by Maguire Associates, an education-consulting firm, in February and March similarly showed that economic factors are affecting the college-search process. The Maguire report, “The 2009 College Decision Impact Survey,” is based on responses from 30,866 high-school juniors and seniors and 5,705 parents of juniors and seniors who were members of FastWeb, a scholarship-search Web site. Most of the students in the sample were seniors.
The survey found that about 72 percent of high-school seniors agreed somewhat or strongly with the statement “I am more likely to consider attending a public college or university due to the recent economic downturn.” About 61 percent of seniors and 64 percent of seniors’ parents said concerns about the economy “somewhat” or “greatly” affected the colleges to which students applied.
Even so, John Maguire, chairman of Maguire Associates, said the economy doesn’t appear to be changing where students would prefer to attend college. The characteristics of the groups of students who said they prefer a private institution over a public one, or vice versa, haven’t changed and do not signal that the economy has increased students’ preference for public colleges.
The biggest uncertainty, Mr. Maguire said, will be the decisions of the approximately 11 percent of seniors who reported no preference between public and private colleges, but who share many characteristics with those who said they prefer a private college.
“Given some of the things we don’t see, so far I’m comfortable with the hypothesis that families consider education for their children essential,” he said. “And they’ll make sacrifices that seem counterintuitive with what’s going on in the economy.”
http://chronicle.com Section: Students Volume 55, Issue 33, Page A21
