One of the standard lines about the Millennial Generation is that they have more civic awareness, more selflessness, more charitable feelings, and more political engagement than any generation in recent memory.
Steven Johnson, for instance, says that they are “the least violent, the most politically engaged and the most entrepreneurial since the dawn of the television era.” And Michiko Kakutani chose Millennial Makeover (by Winograd and Hais) as one of the top 10 books of 2008 precisely because it showed that “2008 would be a ‘change’ election, informed by new technology and by the outlook of a new generation of millennial voters, who tend to be more inclusive, optimistic, and tech-savvy than their elders.”
Two recent reports from the Center for Information & Research on Civic Learning and Engagement temper the enthusiasm, however. The first one is entitled “Downward Trend in High School Volunteering” (go here and scroll down to the pdf). It states that since 2005, volunteering by 16- to 18-year-olds has slid 6 percentage points. It should be pointed out, too, that the decline took place before the financial crisis hit in the second half of 2008, so economic reasons aren’t sufficient to account for the national trend.
As for the Millennials’ political activity, last year before the presidential election we heard great predictions about the youth vote. Here at Daily Kos, for example, the question was “Will Youth Vote Turnout Rate Top 1972?” And remember that Time Magazine announced “The Year of the Youth Vote” back in January 08. People estimated soon after voting day that the youth vote rose from 2004 up six percentage points. I saw an early tally that put it at three points, 52 percent of 18- to 29-year-olds showing up at the polls — a rise, but not close to the enthusiastic visions of the preceding months.
CIRCLE’s report from this week lowers the estimate another percentage point to 51.1 percent. (Go to the same link as above and scroll down to the pdf entitled “The Youth Vote in 2008.”) This marked the third highest voter turnout for 18- to 29-year-olds since 1972, when the age was lowered to 18. Since 2000, participation has climbed 11 points, and since 1996 — the basement of the youth vote — it’s up 11.5 percent.
But instead of the Millennials looking like an outstanding group, it appears that the preceding group, Generation X, is the exception. Compared to 18- to 29-year-olds in the 70s and 80s and early-90s, today’s 18- to 29-year-olds fall pretty much in the middle. The 1992 figure was slightly higher than 2008, 52 percent, and 1972 stands at the top at 55.4 percent. Furthermore, several lower figures aren’t that much lower: 49.1 percent in 1984, 48.2 percent in 1980, 48.8 percent in 1976. (See, too, in the report, figures on “Share of votes cast” for more evidence of overall average-ness.)
So let’s alter the claims. The Millennials are not the “most politically engaged” group since the advent of television, and they haven’t made the 2008 vote a “change” election, at least not in terms of their raw numbers.
Why, then, does the assertion of “Millennial civics” echo so often? I think it has to do not with the rates of civic participation, but with its orientation. The youth vote went 2-to-1 for Obama this time, an extraordinary imbalance that spells doom for the Republican Party if it persists. If you’re a liberal, a progressive, a Democrat, well, these kids are, indeed, a wondrous advent.
