India surpasses China, and other takeaways from our analysis of student-visa data
India has eclipsed China as the top source of international students in the United States, thanks in part to big increases in new students. It’s the first time in 15 years China hasn’t held the No. 1 spot.
As of September, there were more than 320,000 active Indian student-visa holders compared with some 254,000 from China, according to a database maintained by the U.S. Department of Homeland Security.
The number of new Indian students on American campuses surged again this fall. Nearly 89,000 visas were issued to Indian students in the critical months of May through August — a 5 percent increase over the same four months in 2022 and an eye-popping 160 percent more than during the same span in 2019, prior to the pandemic.
My colleague Dan Bauman and I examined visa data collected by the U.S. Department of State from consulates around the globe, focusing on the summer months, when the vast majority of student visas are awarded. Over all, it’s a positive picture for American higher education, with total issuances topping 307,000 for the current academic year.
You can read our analysis here. As always, nonsubscribers who register for a free Chronicle account can read two articles a month. Your readership supports our journalism.
Now, for a few key observations:
While it was surpassed by India, student-visa growth in China wasn’t too shabby. Some 70,000 visas were issued to Chinese students for the new academic year, a 47 percent increase over the prior year. That’s a reversal from 2022, when Chinese visa issuances nosedived during the same period.
The rebound should reassure those who worried that Chinese students had soured on studying in America. Going forward, China seems likely to continue to be an important source of international students, if not the overwhelmingly dominant one it was for the last decade and a half. Still, colleges will want to keep an eye on the potential impact of China’s sputtering economy on families’ ability to afford education abroad.
India’s march to the top isn’t all about new students. Indian students are far more likely than their Chinese classmates to stay in the United States after graduation to gain work experience. More than a third of Indian student-visa holders were participating in Optional Practical Training, the postgraduate work program, in 2021, compared with 18 percent of Chinese students. The value that Indian students place on on-the-job experience, in addition to their degrees, is important to keep in mind amid broader national debates about visas and immigration.
India and China … then where? For a host of reasons — financial, cultural, educational, and to expand access — colleges are anxious to diversify their international enrollments. Yet more than half of all newly awarded visas went to students in just two countries, China and India.
Beyond those two powerhouses, one major bright spot was Ghana, where visa issances climbed 68 percent. But as I combed through the data, I took note of places where I had been primed to expect big things but was seeing no or only modest growth — countries like Nigeria, Nepal, and Bangladesh.
It’s hard to know exactly why a rise in applications didn’t translate into bigger student growth; one reason could be high visa-denial rates in certain regions of the world. The upshot is that international-admissions directors, particularly those at smaller or less-resourced institutions, can be caught in a bind, wanting to diversify but needing to show results. Just yesterday morning, one told me that he’d like to recruit more in sub-Saharan Africa but struggled to justify the staff and travel costs given low student yield. “I’ll probably be on a plane to India instead.”
The bottom line: It’s a positive picture for international enrollments at American colleges. The total number of new student visas awarded for the fall of 2023 increased by 9 percent from 2022 and by 20 percent from 2019.
It can be easy to forget, given the pandemic’s enormous impact on student mobility, but international enrollments were softening even before Covid. Not only do this year’s visa-issuance numbers reverse pandemic declines, they suggest American colleges may be on firmer footing when it comes to international students than they have been in some time.