Why Canada is restricting international students — and why the U.S. won’t see big growth
A Canadian government move to cap international-student visas could depress academic mobility to a country that’s seen some of the most robust overseas-enrollment growth in recent years.
But American colleges are unlikely to experience a flood of foreign students who were previously bound for Canada. That’s because there are distinct differences in the profile of students who go to Canada and to the United States, particularly among those students most affected by the visa restrictions.
Here’s some background: Some 1 million international students studied in Canada last year, and the issuance of student visas, or study permits, has increased 60 percent in the past three years. The surge, which dates back more than a decade, may be attributable, in part, to a “Trump bump,” with students choosing Canada over the United States and other major destination countries with more isolationist policies.
But Canada has also been proactive in putting in place policies to try to attract more international students and to make it easier for such students to stay in the country and work after graduation. During the pandemic, officials lifted work restrictions so that students could hold down full-time jobs in addition to their studies, to make up for Covid-related labor shortages.
In an aging society, international students have been a key source of talent, and their tuition supplemented Canadian college budgets.
There has been backlash to the record growth, however. International students have been blamed for housing shortages and strains on health-care services, particularly in populous Ontario and British Columbia. There have also been questions about the readiness of Canadian institutions to accept an influx of students from abroad and about provincial-government oversight.
Canada’s immigration minister, Marc Miller, accused some colleges of operating the “diploma equivalent of puppy mills,” taking in high tuition-paying students without providing adequate services or support. In particular, there has been criticism of colleges, which are distinct from universities in Canada and offer certificates and two-year diplomas, often in business or technology fields. Graduates of such short-term programs can apply for work permits that put them on the path to permanent residency.
In December, the federal government said it was increasing the amount of money students would have to prove they had in their bank accounts in order to get student visas. A month later, it announced the visa caps, to be in place through 2025.
The decision, which was not made in consultation with higher-education groups, was an about-face for a Canadian government that had touted its openness to international students. But some experts have begun to see it as inevitable. “When you have rural colleges with 30 sections of business that just cater to international students, you’ve got to ask, how does that benefit anyone?” said Randall Martin, executive director of the British Columbia Council for International Education.
Canadian higher education “globally is taking a reputational hit” because of the visa changes, Martin said, adding that he thought international enrollments in the fall “would not be great.” Still, Martin said he was “bullish” and expected foreign-student numbers to rebound over time to healthy levels.
The federal government allocated a certain number of study permits to each province based on population, but left it up to the provinces to decide how to distribute them between institutions. In British Columbia, the government apportioned visas evenly across higher education. In Ontario, which enrolls half of all international students in Canada, only one university will see declines in international students, while colleges will be hard hit by the provincial plan. Language schools and private institutions in the province will see especially steep declines.
In addition, the federal government excluded all master’s and doctoral students from the cap, as well as current students seeking study-permit extensions. Those national and provincial decisions could have disparate effects on different groups of students.
For example, in a February report, ApplyBoard, an international-student recruitment platform, warned that universities, which will be limited in their number of acceptances, could be dissuaded from offering admission to students from Africa. That’s because Canadian consulates in Africa, much like their American counterparts, have high denial rates for student-visa applicants.
While it’s possible that American colleges could benefit from a decline in African students going to Canada, it’s unlikely that the United States will see major growth in international students because of the visa changes. That’s because the foreign-student populations in the two countries are distinct, said Sasha Ramani, senior director of strategy for MPower Financing, which makes loans to international students studying in Canada and the United States.
Take Indian students, the largest group of student-visa holders in both countries. In the United States, eight in 10 Indian students are studying at the graduate level, primarily in master’s programs.
In Canada, just 7 percent of Indian students are pursuing master’s degrees, according to an MPower analysis of visa data, and a similar share are in bachelor’s programs. “The balance is overwhelmingly in colleges,” in short-term programs, Ramani said.
Indian students in the United States are “aspiring professionals,” he said, while in Canada, they’re often learning a trade that is “ultimately a pathway to immigration.”
“Maybe some students from Canada could go to the U.S., but it’s a very different profile.”
