Latitudes

India had been the powerhouse of post-pandemic foreign-student growth — until this summer

Student-visa numbers for the fall semester hold sobering, even startling, news: The number of new Indian students on American campuses plunged by a third.

About 59,000 student, or F-1, visas were awarded by American consulates in India during the critical months of May to August, compared with nearly 89,000 during the same period in 2023, according to a Chronicle analysis of U.S. Department of State data. Worldwide, student-visa issuances for this academic year fell by 12.5 percent, with the bulk of the decline driven by India.

The steep skid is alarming because India has powered international enrollments since the pandemic. Last year, it displaced longtime leader China as the top source of foreign students in the United States. Even with recent declines, current Indian student-visa issuances are 76 percent higher than pre-pandemic levels.

But why the sudden drop? Economic and political uncertainty in the United States might have prompted some students to delay their studies. Pent-up demand from the pandemic could be exhausted. Colleges may have pulled back on the expansion of programs, particularly at the master’s-degree level, that were popular with Indian students.

Still, as I spoke with more than a dozen colleges, as well as agents and counselors, I heard a consistent refrain: Much of this year’s drop in new visas appears to be the result of a substantial uptick in denials. They reported that some American consulates in India rejected half or more of those who applied — more in keeping with sky-high F-1 denial rates in sub-Saharan Africa.

The one source I didn’t hear about visa denials from? The State Department. A spokesperson declined to comment on student-visa issuance or rejection rates, saying that “final visa data and analysis” for the current academic year was “not yet available.” Instead, the department referred me to statistics for the 2023 fiscal year, which ended in September 2023, calling it “the most holistic information we can offer at this stage.”

You can read the full analysis by me and my colleague Dan Bauman here. As always, nonsubscribers who register for a free Chronicle account can read two articles a month. Your readership supports our journalism.

Meanwhile, a few more observations:

• The State Department now allows international students to apply for visas up to a year before the start of their academic programs. In India, however, there’s no sign that this flexibility drove decreases during the traditional summertime visa-application period: Visa issuances were down throughout the year. After our article published on Monday night, the State Department posted its September visa data, and there was no last-minute surge in issuances.
• In China, the number of visas fell 12 percent from the summer of 2023, when 70,000 visas were awarded to Chinese students. Still, between May and August, more F-1 visas, 61,100, were issued in China than in India.
• Nepal was a bright spot, with new visas rising by 76 percent. Vietnam is now behind only China and India in visa issuances, seeing an increase of 26 percent over the same period a year ago.

I’d be interested in hearing more perspectives on international-enrollment trends — both who is on campus this fall and how the pipeline is shaping up for next year. Email me at karin.fischer@chronicle.com.

AIEA names new leader

Clare Overmann, a longtime global-education leader, will be the new chief executive of the Association of International Education Administrators, the organization announced today.

Overmann most recently directed the Institute of International Education’s global strategic-engagement efforts, working with colleges, governments, corporations, and foundations. An expert on academic partnerships, she led the growth and transformation of IIE’s Center for International Partnerships and also served as the inaugural executive director of the National Academy for International Education, collaborating with colleagues globally on training, publications, and meetings.

“International education is more important than ever today,” Overmann said, calling AIEA “the bedrock for those boldly forging its future.”

Overmann, a graduate of Georgetown and New York Universities, will start in November. She succeeds Darla Deardorff, who led AIEA for 19 years.

International-education coalition announces priorities for new year

No matter who wins the White House in next week’s election, a top priority for the U.S. for Success Coalition will be to press the new president and Congress for policies supportive of international students.

The coalition of education organizations, advocacy groups, and think tanks is celebrating its first anniversary. It was formed to push for a coordinated national strategy to reassert the United States as the leading destination for global talent, to ensure the success of foreign students on American campuses, and to establish immigration pathways to help retain top international graduates. In its inaugural year, it is applauding the State Department for its decision to extend a waiver of the interview requirement for some student-visa renewals and its commitment to ensuring timely visa appointments for students, among other achievements.

In addition to advocating for a whole-of-government approach to ease headwinds to foreign-student recruitment and talent retention, the coalition also plans to strengthen its work with colleges to increase and diversify international enrollments.

Tech entrepreneur Elon Musk accused of student-visa violations

Did the tech entrepreneur and Trump supporter Elon Musk illegally work to create his first start-up company while on a student visa?

The Washington Post reports that in the mid-1990s, Musk received a visa for graduate study at Stanford University but never enrolled in classes. Instead, he founded a company that provided a searchable business directory, a sort of yellow pages for the early internet. His lack of legal work status alarmed investors, the Post reported, based on court records, company documents, and interviews with former business associates.

That history would seem at odds with Musk’s vocal criticism of the Biden administration’s immigration policies. He has been a major donor and campaign surrogate for former President Donald Trump, echoing the Republican nominee’s claims that “open borders” and undocumented immigrants threaten the United States.

In a late-night post on the social-media platform X, which he owns, Musk denied working illegally. He later said he had been on a J-1 visa, for academic exchange, and transferred to a temporary work visa.

Visa regulations place strict limits on students’ ability to work while in the United States, and failure to enroll in classes can jeopardize their legal status.

Around the globe

Nearly 2,000 scholars and scientists have endorsed a letter drafted by Stanford faculty members opposing reinstatement of the China Initiative, a federal investigation of academic ties to China.

The Institute of International Education and the Hispanic Association of Colleges and Universities will work to expand access to international education to Latino students and those studying at Hispanic-serving institutions.

The Dutch government is seeking to cut international-student numbers by a third and to limit college courses offered in English.

Russia wants to attract more foreign students as part of an effort to expand its global influence.

A Nobel Prize laureate from France has joined China’s Peking University to lead cutting-edge physics research.

An anonymous international-education administrator in Britain said universities there have struggled to support increasing numbers of foreign students without additional staff or resources. International enrollment growth “did not lead to investment in students as I expected,” the administrator wrote. “Instead, it went to plug unseen financial holes elsewhere.”

Thanks for reading. I always welcome your feedback and ideas for future reporting, so drop me a line at karin.fischer@chronicle.com. You can also connect with me on X or LinkedIn. If you like this newsletter, please share it with colleagues and friends. They can sign up here.