The return of Donald Trump
International education had an uneasy relationship with Donald J. Trump during his first term in office, and his reelection to the presidency has many wondering what’s next. Over the past week, I’ve spoken with leaders and experts and heard from many of you about the big questions Trump’s victory poses for the field.
Will international-student interest in studying in the United States cool off?
In pre-election surveys, foreign students consistently said that the outcome of the vote would have little effect on their decision to come to the United States. (Here’s coverage of one survey. And another.) It’s markedly different from four and eight years ago, when students indicated they would reconsider pursuing a degree in America if Trump was in office.
One reason for students’ more-muted concern may be that “risk is already baked in” when it comes to Trump and his policies, said David Weeks, chief operating officer of Sunrise International, which assists colleges in recruitment in China. Students may perceive Trump, and the United States, as less welcoming and have factored that into their choice to go abroad.
The number of new international students did fall during the first Trump administration, but the declines were not as precipitous as many had forecasted or feared. Chinese enrollments increased slightly over that time, Weeks said.
Still, Project 2025, which many see as a blueprint for the new administration, calls for government officials to “end their current cozy deference to educational institutions” on student-visa policy and proposes to “eliminate or significantly reduce” visas to foreign students from “enemy nations” — which could include top sending countries like China and Iran.
Rajika Bhandari Advisors, an international-education research and strategy firm, is conducting a brief survey of current international students about their immediate reactions to and feelings about the election results. The online survey is fully anonymous and confidential.
Could policies or policy proposals be recycled from Trump’s first term?
Susie Wiles, who will be the White House chief of staff, told Republican donors this week that Trump would immediately reinstate several executive orders from his first term that President Biden had revoked. Wiles didn’t specify which orders would be restored, but Trump has said he plans to revive a ban on travelers, including students and scholars, from several predominantly Muslim countries.
Another Trump-era policy canceled under Biden that could be brought back is the China Initiative, the federal investigation of academic and economic espionage with China.
Rather than start from scratch, Trump officials could use earlier proposals as templates — with, perhaps, some tweaking. A regulatory change that could have barred international students from the United States for lengthy periods of time for relatively minor infractions was blocked in the courts because of rulemaking errors, not on substance. The clock ran out on putting in place a plan that would have strictly capped the amount of time foreign students could study here, replacing a system that permitted students to stay until they completed their degrees. “They could just pull those policies off the shelf,” said Sarah Spreitzer, vice president for government relations at the American Council on Education.
The architect of much of Trump’s agenda on immigration and visas, Stephen Miller, is expected to be named a senior policy adviser.
There’s also an advantage for international-education advocates in knowing what’s coming. “They’re more prepared,” said Miriam Feldblum, executive director of the Presidents’ Alliance on Higher Education and Immigration, “and higher ed is more wary.”
Are academic and cultural exchange programs at risk?
In his first term, Trump repeatedly proposed deep budget cuts to U.S. Department of State-funded exchanges, like the flagship Fulbright program, ranging from 56 percent to 78 percent.
Congress rejected Trump’s reductions — in fact, funding actually grew by about 17 percent over those four years, said Mark Overmann, executive director for the Alliance for International Exchange, a group that represents organizations and providers that run exchanges and support global-education programming. News that Trump plans to name Sen. Marco Rubio as secretary of state “provides some measure of optimism,” Overmann said, because the Florida lawmaker has supported exchange programs in the past.
But if Trump once again seeks to slash exchange spending, will there be bipartisan majorities in Congress to push back as in the past? Last year, an amendment in the House would have zeroed out exchange funding, although it was dropped from a final bill.
What does the new administration mean for undocumented and refugee students?
Pledges of mass deportation were some of the biggest applause lines of the Trump campaign, and there are concerns about what his election could mean for undocumented, immigrant, and refugee students. Trump could end programs that allow people fleeing war or crises in their home countries to live and work in the United States and block states that give in-state tuition to undocumented students from receiving federal student aid. He could again seek to roll back the Deferred Action for Childhood Arrivals program, which provides legal protections to undocumented students and other young people.
“Anxiety and uncertainty are what’s really going to be a killer here,” said Gaby Pacheco, president of TheDream.US, a college-access program for undocumented students.
Read more: What Trump’s Threats of Mass Deportation Could Mean for Higher Ed.
