The Edge

I’m Goldie Blumenstyk, a senior writer at The Chronicle of Higher Education, covering innovation in and around academe. Here’s what I’m thinking about this week.

The effects of the pandemic hit unevenly across higher ed.

College leaders spent the past month sending students home from campuses and overseeing a frantic pivot to remote learning. Now, before they’ve even taken a breath, new uncertainties loom: Can they reopen in the fall? Will students return? In what ways will colleges have to change? Will they survive at all?

Answers to most of these top-of-mind questions are still unknown. Still, you know things are dire when even the most steadfast defender of the viability of small colleges — Richard Ekman, president of the Council of Independent Colleges — now acknowledges that “quite a lot of colleges are in jeopardy.”

The effects of the Covid-19 pandemic are already hitting unevenly across higher education. Institutions that are tuition-dependent, with few other sources of revenue, face the most pressure. Many colleges that are members of the council or the National Association of Independent Colleges and Universities or the American Association of State Colleges and Universities, are in that boat.

I spoke with Ekman and the heads of the other two groups over the past few days, as they shared the biggest worries they’ve been hearing from their members. Here’s what struck me:

I’d never heard Ekman sound so concerned about small colleges’ survival. Usually he’s a reliable cheerleader, touting their ability to stave off closure with some last-ditch innovation or entrepreneurial venture, even as analysts and pundits predict their demise. But for institutions already struggling, the effects of Covid-19 could be decisive. As Ekman told me, “It’s just a lot harder if you don’t know if you’re going to be open in the fall.”

He’s worried not just for the students, professors, and other employees of these colleges, but also for the communities they’re in. Without these institutions, he said, “a lot of small towns would just die.”

Small private colleges aren’t the only institutions at risk. Mildred Garcia, president of the state-college association, said she expected more mergers among public colleges to “definitely be on the table” with the tightening of state support. That would mean more soul-searching by institutions as they reckon with how best to serve their regions with fewer resources. Many of those colleges, she said, will need to ask, “Who will we be after this pandemic?”

Ekman, Garcia, and Barbara Mistick, president of Naicu, said college leaders are also worried about enrollment: whether freshmen will show up, whether current students will stick it out this semester in the remote format, and whether they’ll return in the summer or fall if courses are still online. Many students chose their college because they want face-to-face teaching and a residential experience, Mistick noted. “This shift could totally turn that group off.” And if they do withdraw, she said, “will they re-engage?”

Enrollment isn’t easy to predict. Ekman worries more about the challenge of getting freshmen to show up than about returning students, because with the latter group, he said, colleges still have “the emotional ties” and the opportunity to enlist professors and others in outreach.

Regional state colleges could see some benefit, Garcia noted, if students feel strongly about staying close to home in the wake of the pandemic, or if they decide on the basis of affordability. That could actually help some with the enrollment challenges they face, she told me. Sure, that’s possible. But if those colleges are left to offer only remote instruction, I’ve got to wonder whether students will instead opt for established online universities, especially in Pennsylvania and other states where those institutions are already making a big play.

Concerns about lower-income students getting the laptops, tablets, other technology, and Wi-Fi access they need to complete this term also came up. Colleges can’t bridge the broadband divide in a month, but dozens if not hundreds of them have turned their student-affairs and IT-staff members into computer distributors, as tweets like this show. Garcia said she’s even heard of presidents and other campus officials getting into cars and delivering devices.

The financial picture is confounding to just about everyone. Most state legislatures haven’t set their budgets for next year, so public colleges don’t know what to expect — although they know it will be bad.

Private colleges face a different challenge: Some are weighing layoffs or furloughs to ensure that they don’t fail the federal-financial responsibility test, which is based on assets and reserves held at the close of the fiscal year (typically June 30). “It’s the only leverage they have to reduce costs fast.” said Mistick. Questions about layoff and furloughs are “the No. 1 thing in my inbox,” she told me.

The financial-responsibility scores don’t come out for a year or two after the books close, but without assurances that colleges will get some relief, leaders worry that the unexpected expenses of this year — such as room-and-board refunds — could eventually cause them problems, because the scores factor into their ability to award federal student aid, their accreditation, and their authority to offer online courses across state lines. The independent-college association (which has long argued that these scores are flawed) has asked the Department of Education and lawmakers to waive the scoring for now, but so far, the issue remains unresolved.

Springtime is also the season for graduations and reunions. But this year, those are also in doubt, if not already called off — along with the usual opportunities for a final year-end push for alumni donations. “I’m not sure how much capacity there is to think about giving” right now, Mistick said, particularly with the economy in havoc.

Alumni cohesion could also suffer, she said. But this crisis could be something that binds classes together. “When they come back 50 years from now,” said Mistick, “this is what they’ll be talking about.”

That comment stuck with me. It’s a sad thought, yes. But kind of comforting as well. As with the traumas of World War II and the Vietnam War, higher ed may be markedly changed by the Covid-19 crisis. But in the end, it will survive this, too.

Quote of the Week.

“Based on the values expressed and embodied by so many over the last 15 years, disruption demands celebration. Displacement? Growing inequality? People left behind? Don’t worry about it. We’re busy disrupting. Yet this particular moment reveals the ways in which lifting up disruption weakened our society and left so many so vulnerable.”

— Michael J. Lansing

Lansing, an associate professor of history at Augsburg University, in a commentary published last week in MinnPost.

Knots in the Cares Act could delay relief for colleges.

The $2-trillion spending bill Congress passed last month promises as much as $14 billion in relief for colleges. But there are still some giant knots to be untangled before the money starts flowing. Colleges’ share of the money is based on two criteria: the number of full-time-equivalent students they enroll who receive Pell Grants, and the number of students enrolled, excluding those fully online. But according to college lobbyists, no one actually has current data on either of those criteria.

Colleges and the Department of Education do track information on Pell Grant recipients, but those numbers are typically reported based on head count, not full-time equivalency. And at the federal level, the data on students at each institution who are fully online are imprecise and a few years out of date. So until someone figures out how to allocate the money, it won’t be flowing.

A new payroll-protection loan program that’s open to businesses and nonprofit organizations with fewer than 500 employees also has a catch that could make it all but impossible for colleges to qualify. That’s because the program counts students employed by the colleges as part of the 500 maximum. Since most colleges employ students — as part of financial-aid packages or otherwise — most will also be disqualified from using this program.

What should colleges not do during a recession?

My colleague (and sometimes guest writer for The Edge) Scott Carlson will lead an interactive discussion with experts on strategy and academic quality to explore key questions to consider during a recession. He and Paul Friga, a consultant who teaches business at the University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill, will be joined by Lynn Pasquerella, president of the Association of American Colleges and Universities. They’ll discuss how five myths of a recession apply to higher ed and findings from a new survey of AAC&U college presidents. Register here to watch live on Wednesday at 2 pm Eastern or to catch it later on demand.

Hope you’re all still staying safe, sane, and humane. Also, please, #StayAtHome.

Got a tip you’d like to share or a question you’d like me to answer? Let me know, at goldie@chronicle.com. If you have been forwarded this newsletter and would like to see past issues, or sign up to receive your own copy, you can do so here. If you want to follow me on Twitter, @GoldieStandard is my handle.