Enrollment woes fuel a push for more online and hybrid courses — and other changes, too.
A survey report being released today shows that 89 percent of college leaders are concerned about future enrollment and that many of them are responding by introducing more courses and academic programs in online or hybrid formats, adding microcredential offerings, and beefing up their recruiting of students who had previously stopped out of college.
There’s lots to parse from this survey (see below) but not least, for me, is: Really? As many as 11 percent of top administrators still say they are “not concerned” about enrollment right now?
Okay, actually, we all know that higher ed has always had its haves and have-nots, and the pandemic has only exacerbated that situation. Interestingly, though, it’s the comfortable institutions that seem least compelled to change their ways. “Those same schools are not seeing a need to move to online or hybrid,” says Jeff Seaman, director of Bay View Analytics, which conducted the survey of more than 700 top college officials and described the findings in a 26-page report, “Planning for a Smaller Future: Dealing with Declining Enrollments.” Most of the 89 percent who are concerned are taking action on several fronts.
Seaman gave me an early look at the survey results last week, and the final version of the report was informed by some of my reactions. (The report is a spinoff of a larger set of survey findings that Bay View is also releasing today in collaboration with several partners.)
Following are five findings from the enrollment report that stood out to me:
No. 1. Leaders at community colleges are far more worried about future enrollments (97 percent) than those at public or private four-year colleges (around 80 percent). While I know enrollments are down now at two-year colleges, that surprised me a little because those institutions aren’t as reliant on traditional-age students, and so seemingly wouldn’t be as affected by the coming drop in 18-to-24-year-olds, the notorious demographic cliff. But as Seaman noted, demographics are just one of the blows coming at higher ed. The other — the pandemic — already landed, and it affected students unevenly. Those at, or likely to attend, community colleges were hardest hit. Community colleges also don’t have the option of using new master’s-degree programs to bolster enrollment, which some of the four-year institutions may be counting on.
No. 2. Two-year and four-year public colleges show the most interest in adding online and hybrid courses, but more than half of leaders from private institutions say they too are adding them. While it’s hard to know how deep these changes go — some colleges might be adding just a few courses, but others, maybe dozens of full degree programs — Seaman said colleges can’t ignore students’ continuing interest in these more-flexible options. The thinking is, “If any reasonable fraction of my student body wants this, I have to do it,” he said. This trend began years before the pandemic. In 2017 I reported on findings from Bay View (then called Babson Survey Research Group) that showed overall college enrollment falling but online enrollment growing. Now online, along with hybrid, is accelerating.
No. 3. The interest in offering new microcredential options is, unsurprisingly, greatest at two-year colleges (76 percent are either offering them now or plan to). But four-year institutions are showing a lot of interest too. Currently only about 11 percent of four-year private colleges offer microcredentials, but the survey shows an additional 38 percent said they planned to. “For a lot of institutions,” Seaman said, “this is a whole mind-set change.”
No. 4. It’s nice to see more colleges turning their attention to recruiting students who previously stopped out. (There’s nothing like a worldwide pandemic and looming demographic cliff to focus the mind.) But I also hope colleges realize that this isn’t as easy as it might appear. Yes, there are now 39-million adults with some college and no degree, but as I’ve reported often (most recently, here) it takes a lot of effort and intention to succeed. For one, in the current economy, returning to college now might not even be a good choice for some students. And, as Seaman noted of those prospects: “Most of them stopped out for real good reasons that have not gone away.”
No 5. Among other strategies colleges are using or planning to use, I was struck that so many community colleges are looking to work with alumni to improve their outreach. That surprised me because historically, those institutions on the whole haven’t had the resources to assiduously stay in touch with their graduates. But maybe that’s changing, and as Seaman said, at the very least, “a lot of them have a lot of alumni.” I was also surprised to see relatively less interest from colleges in working with enrollment-management firms — even among private four-year colleges that now rely upon them the most. But as Seaman noted, along with concerns about the costs of those services, many of those strategies take time to play out. And for many institutions, time is not on their side.
Check these out.
Here are some education-related items from other outlets that recently caught my eye. Did I miss a good one? Let me know.
- Those online-gambling companies aren’t just looking for customers by flooding our televisions with commercials. They’re also cutting deals with colleges to get their betting apps front and center with students. So far, at least eight universities have become partners with online sports-betting companies, many in the last year, with more expected, according to this deep dive in The New York Times. “Because gambling is not featured on school tours or in university brochures, parents may not know their children are enrolled in colleges where gambling is encouraged through free bets, loyalty programs and bonuses,” the piece notes.
- Several trends in the economy right now may not bode well for colleges — the generally hot job market being one of them). But another may offer a silver lining. As Axios recently reported, “high compensation and lavish benefits at big tech have made it harder for companies in every other sector — health care, retail, energy — to attract the engineering talent they need,” That goes for IT departments in higher ed, too. Now, with tech giants like Meta and Twitter starting to retrench, colleges and other sectors might find it a tad easier to hire the people they need.
- Financial barriers often dictate where Native Americans apply to college and whether they graduate, according to an analysis of a national study on college affordability for Indigenous students in The 19th. Half of the 2,800 participants in the study said they chose their higher-education institution based on the cost of attendance, and a plurality of current and former students said they come from households with annual incomes of under $20,000 and struggled during college to manage unanticipated expenses related to health care, transportation, housing, technology and books. The findings are significant but so is the study itself. It’s believed to be the largest such data set for this population.
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