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Subject: Weekly Briefing: Job Losses Are Here. More Are Coming.
Job Losses Are Here. More Are Coming.
In any good movie or novel with intrigue, the writer often deploys Chekhov’s gun. A character brings a pistol into the house in the first act or chapter, and just when you forgot about it, the gun goes off by the end. But if you’re familiar with this trope, you may — like me— wonder when the big dramatic moment will arrive. For the higher-ed industry, that time is now. Or is it?
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Job Losses Are Here. More Are Coming.
In any good movie or novel with intrigue, the writer often deploys Chekhov’s gun. A character brings a pistol into the house in the first act or chapter, and just when you forgot about it, the gun goes off by the end. But if you’re familiar with this trope, you may — like me— wonder when the big dramatic moment will arrive. For the higher-ed industry, that time is now. Or is it?
This week our Dan Bauman combed through jobs numbers released by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics and found that the work force that serves the country’s colleges has shrunk by at least 7 percent since Covid-19 came to the U.S. An estimated 337,000 fewer workers were employed by private and public institutions in August compared with February. For perspective, the bureau began keeping industry numbers in the late 1950s, and at no point have colleges shed this many employees at this rate. It could take colleges years to recover the job losses, but some jobs may not return.
In the spring, when colleges shifted to online learning while the U.S. economy reeled from the coronavirus, college employees worried that the virus could spell trouble for higher ed’s financial health. Some colleges resorted to layoffs and furloughs to deal with their deep budget shortfalls. Others wondered if or when the financial fallout would hit them.
At Ithaca College the effect of the pandemic is accelerating plans to cut academic programs and faculty jobs. Undergraduate enrollment is down more than 16 percent from a year ago, according to the college’s figures. The institution faces an $8-million budget shortfall given an increase in operating costs. La Jerne T. Cornish, Ithaca’s provost, told our Eric Kelderman that in the spring, the college will cut nearly a quarter of its 547 faculty members.
Odds are Ithaca’s won’t be the only financial-fallout story you’ll hear in the coming months. Job losses have already reached historic levels, and some states may see declines in tax revenues, leaving less money for public colleges.
Today’s dismal job numbers may signal that Chekhov’s gun has already fired, and there’s only smoke left. But there could be even more job losses this fall and winter. Maybe it hasn’t gone off after all.
Listen. How have coronavirus restrictions and the economic recession affected one neighborhood bar? This episode of The New York Times podcast The Daily goes behind the scenes of the an Oakland, Calif., bar’s struggle. (The New York Times)
Watch. The filmmaker Kirsten Johnson didn’t want her father to die, so she made a movie staging fantastical ways his life would end. Then, he started to lose his memory. You can stream the heartfelt documentary, Dick Johnson Is Dead, on Netflix. (YouTube)