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What Is the Demographic Cliff?

About This Project

This content was created by The Chronicle‘s editorial team, supported by a grant from the Ascendium Education Group.

You keep hearing about the “demographic cliff” higher education is facing. It’s an ominous-sounding term for the steep decline in traditional-age students projected to start by 2026, with the number of new high-school graduates expected to fall by about 13 percent by 2041. The consequences of the cliff will vary across geographic regions and types of institutions, yet there’s widespread worry about its effect.

How did higher ed get to this precipice? And what does it mean for students? Watch our explainer to understand the history of enrollment trends, the effects of the ways they’re changing, and how colleges can best position themselves to handle those changes.

The video was created and animated by Crudo Creative. Senior photo and media editor Erica Lusk directed the project. Senior editor Maura Mahoney and senior web producer Carmen Mendoza contributed to production.

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About the Author
Graham Vyse is the staff reporter for Chronicle Intelligence. Before joining The Chronicle, he was a staff writer for The New Republic and Governing and a contributing writer for The Washington Post Magazine. His writing has also appeared in Politico Magazine, Slate, The Washington Monthly, and Washingtonian. He is a graduate of American University, where he earned his B.A. in political science in 2011 and his M.A. in journalism and public affairs in 2013. Email him at graham.vyse@chronicle.com.