Community colleges that were counting on an influx of transfer students seeking an economical education closer to home faced a sobering surprise this fall, according to a report released on Tuesday.
The number of so-called reverse transfers actually dropped steeply in a semester upended by the Covid-19 pandemic, says the report, from the National Student Clearinghouse Research Center. Meanwhile, an unexpectedly high number of students followed the more common path of transferring from community colleges to four-year institutions.
The double whammy that’s hitting community-colleges as more students transfer out and fewer transfer in will hurt the disadvantaged students they serve especially hard, according to the authors of the report, “Covid-19: Transfer, Mobility, and Progress.” The report is based on 9.2 million students, or nearly 54 percent of postsecondary institutions reporting to the clearinghouse as of September 24.
The increase in transfers to four-year colleges is welcome for institutions trying to close enrollment gaps but “it only adds to the concerns of a looming enrollment crisis in the community college sector,” the report notes. “On top of a 23 percent decline in freshman enrollment, the combination of higher upward transfer and lower reverse transfer adds up to a triple threat for further declines in the number of students enrolled in community colleges.”
Among the report’s highlights:
- Transfer enrollment is down 4.7 percent from last fall, dropping slightly more than the 4.5 percent decline in overall undergraduate enrollment. Transfers now make up 13.4 percent of overall enrollment.
- The number of students transferring from four-year to two-year colleges dropped 18.4 percent, compared with 5 percent last year. These “reverse transfers” now make up 11 percent of all transfers.
- Meanwhile, the number of students transferring in the opposite direction rose by 2.6 percent.
- Transfers also declined as a share of the overall enrollment, to 13.4 percent, from 13.8 percent last year.
Stark disparities remained in upward transfers, from the 18.7 percent increase for Asian students to the 0.2 percent decrease for Black students.
Experts who took an early look at the findings said they were troubled by the equity implications.
“Community-college funding is largely predicated on enrollment, and if that goes down, state funding will probably also go down,” said Thomas Brock, director and research professor at the Community College Research Center, part of Columbia University’s Teachers College.
“We could find ourselves in a bit of a downward spiral, with fewer resources available to develop programs,” he added. “My greatest worry is that the lowest-income students are most affected — the ones who are not showing up in community colleges, or showing up anywhere,” Brock added.
Mikyung Ryu, director of research publications at the National Student Clearinghouse Research Center, pointed out that more than 80 percent of beginning community-college students aspire to earn a bachelor’s degree. Only about 13 percent are able to accomplish that, the center has found. For lower-income students, the attainment rate drops to about 10 percent. In that sense, “This pandemic is opening opportunities for those with strong motivation to attain a baccalaureate degree” as quickly and inexpensively as they can, she said.
The fact that more students are transferring to four-year colleges could mean that colleges are easing requirements that previously blocked students from doing that. Some are waiving grade requirements and accepting more credits for transfer, said Doug Shapiro, executive director of the research center.
Four-year colleges may also be doing a better job with marketing and outreach than community colleges, which typically don’t spend a great deal of time or money in those areas, Shapiro said. There’s also some indication that for-profit colleges are recruiting more transfer students this fall.
“This is the most worrisome trend here,” Brock said. While some for-profit colleges are reputable, “on the whole, they do not represent a wise investment, especially for low-income students.”
Overall college enrollment is down, not just transfers. So it’s likely that some students who might have planned to attend a community college are opting to wait, or to take a break from college instead, said Janet L. Marling, executive director of the National Institute for the Study of Transfer Students at the University of North Georgia. With students facing so many financial, health, and child-care pressures this fall, “college may be a lesser priority,” she wrote in an email.
Saving money and staying closer to home aren’t the only reasons students switch to community colleges. Those who struggle academically in four-year colleges might transfer to two-year colleges to recalibrate before transferring back to their four-year institutions. This year, such students might have decided to leave college instead, especially if they lacked the financial, personal, and mental-health support to see the transfer through, Marling wrote.
The consequence, she wrote, is that “Covid-19 is wreaking havoc on our most vulnerable populations, leaving them without jobs and needing to care for one another due to illness or public schools delivering remote instruction.” The data also show that “those who were already stretched and had previously stopped out of school prior to the spring term are not returning to school.”
Uncertainty about how many students would transfer in and out of their institutions has been one of the most vexing questions facing enrollment managers.
Even before the pandemic, Black and Hispanic students were less likely than their white and Asian peers to transfer from two-year to four-year colleges, the clearinghouse has reported. The same is true in general for lower-income students, who graduate with a bachelor’s degree at half the rate of their higher-income counterparts.
Community colleges aren’t the only ones that will be hurt by the drop in students, enrollment experts point out. As their enrollments continue to erode, four-year colleges that rely heavily on transfers will soon be feeling the impact as well.