Good morning, and welcome to Wednesday, May 1. Eric Kelderman wrote today’s Briefing. Nick Perez compiled Comings and Goings. Get in touch: dailybriefing@chronicle.com.
FAFSA fail foreboding
The frenzy of March Madness has nothing on the uncertainty and pressure of the enrollment challenges facing colleges this month.
Today, May 1, is the traditional deadline for students to accept a college’s offer of admission. But this year the date is less a sign that the admissions cycle is moving on and more a reminder of the many delays and technical glitches that have bedeviled the awarding of financial aid for this fall.
Colleges are still unable to determine how much aid they can offer to many admitted students, because an attempt to update the Free Application for Federal Student Aid, or FAFSA, derailed the process. Without data from the feds, colleges can’t package aid awards, and students, in turn, can’t make an informed decision about where or even whether to enroll.
The process may be improving. The U.S. Education Department announced on Tuesday that it had both finished reprocessing forms that had “known issues with IRS data” and fixed problems that waylaid applicants without a Social Security number for a parent. “It’s time for schools to package and send aid offers,” the U.S. under secretary of education, James Kvaal, said in a statement.
Here is what three enrollment experts told the Daily Briefing about what’s happening and how it will play out through the summer and into the fall.
Many colleges are giving students more time to decide. Nearly 60 percent of institutions have moved their deadlines to later this spring, gauging from the National Association for College Admission Counseling’s directory. That list includes only about 500 colleges but shows the range of options they’re considering, said Nanci Tessier, a consultant with the Art & Science Group and a former enrollment manager at several institutions.
More data from NACAC:
- About 16 percent of colleges on the list have not moved the enrollment deadline but are extending it for students on a case-by-case basis.
- At last update, 6 percent of colleges were undecided on the date, and 5 percent did not extend the deadline at all.
The uncertainty will not affect colleges equally. More-selective institutions are contending with the same delays but are more able to make late aid offers to fill their classes, Tessier said. In other words, students on the wait list who get in even as late as June might still accept, even if they had committed elsewhere.
Get ready for a meltier than usual summer. As more-selective colleges extend additional offers, other institutions will see a ripple effect.
- Quotable: “The stronger your position in the market,” Tessier said, “the more likely you are to fill your class, even if it’s later in the summer.”
Neither are all students equally affected. Those from low-income backgrounds have had the hardest time completing the FAFSA, said Tessier. If they do not go to college right after high school, she said, they are less likely to ever enroll.
Among high-school seniors, completed financial-aid forms were down by 29 percent through mid-April, compared with last year, according to the National College Attainment Network, and that figure has raised alarm about access for underrepresented students.
Colleges should not be hoping for an enrollment miracle. Administrators need to be thinking ahead about how to manage budget shortfalls because of low enrollment, said Rick Staisloff, founder and principal of the rpk Group, a consulting firm. He is skeptical, however, that many leaders will adequately cut programs or staff to achieve sustainability.
- Quotable: “Too many institutions are continuing to hope for a turnaround in enrollment and an increase in their revenues,” Staisloff said, “rather than make the hard decisions now that would reduce their enrollment capacity and their costs.”
The bigger picture: For colleges, the FAFSA debacle is exacerbating demographic challenges, said John Lawlor, founder of the consulting firm Lawlor Advisory. He’s watching supply and demand: “There are lots of colleges and universities,” he said, “but no longer enough students.”
And students who have to factor financial aid into their college-going decisions — and are more vulnerable in that application process — are more likely to be left out.